ATP Brisbane Best Bets Including Dimitrov vs Carreno-Busta

ATP 250 Brisbane 1/16-Finals

Medvedev – Tiafoe: 06.01.2026 00:00 CEST
H2H: 5-2

Daniil Medvedev has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Brisbane, Medvedev won the opening match against Fucsovics in straight sets. Even though he lost his serve twice, Medvedev won comfortably.

Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Brisbane was in an exhibition tournament where he defeated Fritz and Alcaraz. This week in Brisbane, Tiafoe demolished Vukic in the opening round in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Medvedev is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Tiafoe started the season well. In their past head-to-head meetings, Tiafoe won under similar conditions in three tight sets. If he serves well, we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Tiafoe covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Frances Tiafoe +3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Mpetshi Perricard – Paul: 06.01.2026 03:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has lost four straight matches. His last win was in October last season. With those poor performances, the Frenchman dropped outside the top 60 in the rankings. This will be his opening match of the season.

Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. Paul was injured in the second part of the season and skipped the Asian swing to recover from a foot injury. The last match he played was in December, where he defeated Kyrgios in an exhibition tournament.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Paul is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. The Frenchman struggled last season. On the other hand, Paul had more than enough time to prepare for the upcoming tournaments. He has more weapons than the Frenchman, and we expect him to win.

That being said, Paul winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning @1.50 @bet365

Dimitrov – Carreno-Busta: 06.01.2026 09:30 CEST
H2H: 4-3

Grigor Dimitrov has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was last season in Paris, where he withdrew from the second round match against Medvedev. He was the champion here twice. Last season, Dimitrov lost to Lehecka in the semifinals.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has won three of his last five matches. This week in Brisbane, the Spaniard qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the opening qualifying round, Carreno-Busta defeated Bellucci in three tight sets. Cazaux retired mid-match in the final qualifying round.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Dimitrov is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He enjoys playing in Brisbane and has better weapons for the fast courts than Carreno-Busta. Dimitrov won all three head-to-head meetings against Carreno-Busta on hard courts, and we expect the same outcome tomorrow.

That being said, Dimitrov covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Grigor Dimitrov -2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365