ATP Cincinnati Open Preview

The next leg of the US Open Series is finally here, as the two best players in the world, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, return to the field in a new-look Cincinnati Open. Unlike Toronto, eight of the top 10 players are competing this week (12 days, actually), with only Jack Draper and Novak Djokovic absent.
This tournament historically plays on the faster side, but in the last four editions, we have seen two distinct speeds. It has either been super fast (2021, 2024) or more medium-paced (2022, 2023).

This year, we are getting a new surface due to the change and expansion of the venue. They have shifted to a Har-Tru surfacing, which is in line with both the Mubadala Citi DC Open and the National Bank Open, unifying the complete US Open preparation tournaments. As such, it is again expected to have an ITF court pace rating of 4.0, firmly in the medium-fast speed range.
The balls used will be the US Series Wilson ones, which have received quite a bit of criticism from players and coaches for being slower and, instead of fluffing up like the Slazenger, compressing down. Players who hit with more spin or are not great pace generators themselves have struggled the most.

Now, on to some tennis!

Quarter 1

Jannik Sinner has made life quite easy for everyone because in the quarter he is placed in, he usually ends up winning. So, the question here is: when Sinner reaches that match, who will he face?

The two top seeds on the opposite side of his quarter are Casper Ruud and Lorenzo Musetti, both not particularly strong on fast-ish hard courts and both coming back from injuries. Both of them losing early here is possible, especially Musetti, who is a career sub-.500 player on hard courts.

Felix Auger-Aliassime lost early in Canada, but I can see the time off doing him well to reset a bit and make the most of it by reaching the quarters here. A potential Montreal rematch with Fabian Marozsan might await in the fourth round, but with Cincinnati (percentage-wise) being his best Masters tournament, I’ll give him the nod here–although Sinner will likely be too tough a task in the quarters.

Quarterfinal projection: Jannik Sinner d. Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2.

Quarter 2

Taylor Fritz’s quarter is quite open in my opinion. The top seeds here are Fritz, Holger Rune, Frances Tiafoe, Flavio Cobolli, and Alejandro Davidovic Fokina. A duo of NextGen players, Joao Fonseca and Alex Michelsen, also find themselves in this section, which should be a quarter of opportunity.

Fritz is in good form, having backed up his semifinal run at Wimbledon with a deep run in Montreal as well. Will the match volume catch up with his legs here? It could. A potential fourth round against Davidovich Fokina could be a tasty matchup, given their clashes earlier this season.

Tiafoe, defending finalist points, should also be looking for a strong run here. His two biggest challenges (seed-wise) are both in volatile form and health: Rune and Ugo Humbert. The Dane, having recently added Marco Panchini to his team, didn’t have much to show for in Montreal, as his return game and overall base level remain an issue.

A fourth round should be a realistic aspiration for Michelsen, while Fonseca potentially faces Davidovich Fokina in the second round–a match I would favor the Spaniard in, but would definitely be excited for overall. I don’t think either of them will progress to or past the quarterfinal though, as despite the recent increase in match play, I still back Fritz to come out of this section.

Quarterfinal projection: Taylor Fritz d. Frances Tiafoe in 3.

Quarter 3

Three of the Montreal semifinalists find themselves in this quarter, as Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and Karen Khachanov are joined by Daniil Medvedev, Arthur Fils, and Jiri Lehecka in yet another open section.

I’m sensing a Zverev vs. Fils fourth round here–their matches are always close and decided by just a couple of points. Points which I think are more likely to fall on the side of the German, who is once again playing at a level closer to what his seeding demands of him.

The other side has lottery potential for everyone, with Shelton (not yet proven to play consistently well in back-to-back tournaments) and Medvedev (in a slump) giving chances to everyone else involved. I might regret saying this later, but it has been quite a while since Medvedev played a US Open Series tournament–the swing of the year that made him the player he is. Maybe it’s time to turn back the clock, given the more rest days and lower expectations.

If it does happen, we will get yet another Medvedev vs. Zverev matchup, and the Russian has shown us time and time again that he may have 99 problems, but beating Zverev isn’t one, having won 11 of their last 13 meetings.

Quarterfinal projection: Daniil Medvedev d. Alexander Zverev in 3.

Quarter 4

Carlos Alcaraz is back! He is joined by Alex de Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Jakub Mensik in a quarter that the Spaniard should be favored to advance from.

Mensik’s big serve in a potential fourth round could cause some issues, but a rested, healthy, and seemingly motivated Carlos should pass that test to make one half of the fourth quarterfinal.

On the other side, Rublev and de Minaur will have their chances, but a potential second-round meeting with Learner Tien could again be tricky for the Russian, just as it was in Washington, where he lost in straight sets. If the draw does open up, Alexei Popyrin should look to capitalize, as an all-Aussie fourth round is a possible outcome. I will still favor de Minaur in that one.

Quarterfinal projection: Carlos Alcaraz d. Alex De Minaur in 2.

Final Four

Anyone else feeling a Sinner vs. Alcaraz final? For some reason, despite my general trepidations regarding the Spaniard on faster hard courts, I expect both of them to win their semifinals, giving us yet another potential mouthwatering clash before the US Open.

Sinner would be my pick in the final. These two almost always play close matches, and I would expect another one here, with the Italian winning, say, 7-6 6-4.

Final projection: Jannik Sinner d. Carlos Alcaraz in 2 to defend his title.

Who’s your pick to win? Any bold predictions or disagreements? Drop them in the comments and let’s talk!