ATP Finals Final Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

The best rivalry in tennis will be renewed in the showpiece match at the ATP Finals. Carlos Alcaraz has a chance to win his maiden title at the event and prevent Sinner from retaining the title. We here at LWOT give our prediction and analysis in this article, but which man do you think will win the title?

ATP Finals Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

Head-to-head: Alcaraz 10-5 Sinner

These two have met in five finals in 2025. Alcaraz won four of them, with Sinner’s sole victory coming in the Wimbledon final. The Spaniard has won seven of their last eight ATP meetings, which seems worrying for the world No. 2. However, none of those matches were on an indoor hard court. Sinner defeated his younger rival twice in those conditions at the 2024 and 2025 Six Kings Slam, but those matches do not count in the official head-to-head because they were exhibitions.

The defending ATP Finals champion has won an incredible 27 consecutive indoor hard-court matches. Although Alcaraz is not an overwhelming underdog against anyone, an indoor hard-court meeting in front of an Italian crowd is as tough a challenge as he will face against Sinner. The Spaniard will almost certainly need to be even better than in his 6-2 6-4 victory against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Alcaraz served incredibly against Sinner in their US Open final. On a fast, low-bouncing court that suits the home favorite, Alcaraz’s serve will be even more pivotal. If it does not fire, I think the six-time Grand Slam champion will get overwhelmed. His ability to effectively use different angles and spins against Sinner is reduced in the lively conditions. Alcaraz’s ability to move forward might bring some joy, but it needs to be paired with an excellent overall performance.

Overall, I expect Sinner to retain his ATP Finals title. He is mentally strong enough not to be burdened by losing several finals against Alcaraz, and he has played better tennis than him on indoor courts for the past few years.

Prediction: Sinner in 2