ATP Finals Turin Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Fritz

ATP Nitto Finals Turin Group A

Alcaraz – Fritz: 11.11.2025 14:00 CEST
H2H: 5-1

Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Nitto finals was in Paris, where Norrie upset him in the opening match in three tight sets. This week in Turin, the Spaniard defeated de Minaur in the opening group match in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set tiebreak, but turned it around. Other than that, Alcaraz dominated throughout the match. This is his third appearance in the ATP Finals. He has never made it past the semifinals. Last season, Alcaraz lost in the group stage.

Taylor Fritz has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Nitto finals was in Paris, where he lost to Bublik in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets. This week in Turin, the American defeated Musetti in the opening group match in straight sets. He was great under pressure, offering and saving four breakpoints. Fritz ended the match with thirteen aces and zero double faults. This will be his fourth appearance in the ATP Nitto finals. Last season, Fritz lost to Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the heavy favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. He struggled two weeks ago in Paris and generally does not enjoy playing on indoor hard courts. On the other hand, Fritz is in great form and enjoys playing in the ATP Nitto finals. In his opening match, the American dominated against Musetti. If he serves well, we expect this match to be close.

That being said, Fritz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz +3.5 games handicap @2.20 @bet365

Musetti – de Minaur: 11.11.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 3-1

Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Athens, Musetti had a solid run. He was eventually stopped by Djokovic in the final, losing in three tight sets. Djokovic withdrew from the ATP Nitto finals, so Musetti got the spot. In the opening group match, Musetti lost to Fritz in straight sets. He mainly struggled on his serve, offering twelve breakpoints.

Alex de Minaur has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Paris, de Minaur lost to Bublik in the quarterfinals in three tight sets. This week in Turin, the Australian lost the opening match to Alcaraz in straight sets. He led 5-3 in the opening set tiebreak, but fumbled under pressure. This is his second appearance in the ATP Nitto finals. Last season, de Minaur did not make it past the group stage.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, de Minaur is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is in better form than Musetti and is a better indoor hard-court player than the Italian. We expect him to dominate and win easily. Musetti seemed tired in his opening match against Fritz, shortly after losing to Djokovic in the final.

That being said, de Minaur covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur -2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365