ATP Madrid Final Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper

It promises to be a fascinating ATP Madrid final. Two-time French Open runner-up Casper Ruud hopes to win a first Masters 1000 title, while BNP Paribas Open champion Jack Draper seeks his second of the season. We here at LWOT predict the champion. Who do you think will reign supreme in the Spanish capital?

ATP Madrid Final Prediction

Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper

Head-to-head: First meeting

Neither man dropped a set to reach the final. Ruud overcame Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Korda, Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, and Francisco Cerundolo. Draper defeated Tallon Griekspoor, Matteo Berrettini, Tommy Paul, Matteo Arnaldi, and Lorenzo Musetti.

Although Draper has been outstanding in 2025, Ruud might be more worried about his body heading into the final. The Norwegian suffered with a hip injury in the semifinal against Cerundolo despite triumphing in straight sets. Ruud is undoubtedly grateful to have a day to rest and try to fix the issue. Although it is impossible to know for sure, it did not seem like a severe problem, and not playing the next day gives the three-time Grand Slam runner-up an even better chance of being fully fit.

Despite Draper’s progress on clay, Ruud’s best level on the surface remains superior. The Briton’s tactics will probably be similar to those in the semifinal against Musetti, with the Briton repeatedly peppering the Italian’s backhand with his left-handed forehand. Draper also needs his serve to fire since Ruud will likely put him under pressure on return in the two or three sets played.

There is more pressure on Ruud since he may not get a better chance to win a maiden Masters title. However, I think the 26-year-old has enough mental fortitude to handle it and win in Madrid. Draper will be tested by Ruud in a way he has not faced throughout the tournament, and I think the young star is likely to fall a little short.
Prediction: Ruud in 3