ATP Nitto Finals Alcaraz vs Sinner Best Bets

ATP Nitto Finals Turin final

Alcaraz – Sinner: 16.11.2025 18:00 CEST
H2H: 11-7

Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Nitto finals was in Paris, where Norrie upset him in the opening match in three tight sets. This week in Turin, the Spaniard defeated de Minaur in the opening group match in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set tiebreak, but turned it around. Other than that, Alcaraz dominated throughout the match. This is his third appearance in the ATP Finals. In the second group match, the Spaniard defeated Fritz in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court and losing the opening set 6-7. His easiest challenge came in the third group match against Musetti. Shortly after an hour, the Spaniard demolished Musetti 6-4, 6-1. He offered and saved two breakpoints.

Yesterday in the semifinals, the Spaniard defeated Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. He served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint. Last season, Alcaraz lost in the group stage.

Jannik Sinner has won seventeen straight matches. The Italian is in brilliant form. His last loss was over a month ago in Shanghai, when he retired mid-match against Griekspoor. Since then, Sinner won the exhibition tournament in Saudi Arabia, the ATP 500 in Vienna and the Masters 1000 in Paris. Two weeks ago in Paris, Sinner defeated Auger-Aliassime in the final in straight sets. This week in Turin, Sinner once again won against the Canadian in the opening group match. He offered no breakpoints and dominated throughout the match. In the second group match, the Italian defeated Zverev in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all seven breakpoints he offered. In the third group match, he served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint against Shelton. He ended the match in straight sets.

Yesterday in the semifinals, Sinner defeated de Minaur in straight sets. He was once again unplayable. The Italian offered and saved four breakpoints. Sinner is the defending champion in Turin. Last season, the Italian defeated Fritz in the final in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Sinner is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better indoor hard-court player than Alcaraz. Under similar conditions around a month ago, Sinner demolished Alcaraz in the exhibition tournament in Saudi Arabia.  We expect him to serve well and convert his chances. We believe that with the help of the crowd, Sinner will defend the title in Turin.

That being said, Sinner winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner winning @1.57 @bet365