ATP Nitto Finals Best Bets Including Sinner vs De Minaur

ATP Nitto Finals Turin semifinals

Sinner – De Minaur: 15.11.2025 14:30 CEST
H2H: 12-1

Jannik Sinner has won sixteen straight matches. The Italian is in brilliant form. His last loss was over a month ago in Shanghai, when he retired mid-match against Griekspoor. Since then, Sinner won the exhibition tournament in Saudi Arabia, the ATP 500 in Vienna and the Masters 1000 in Paris. This week in Turin, Sinner won against Auger-Aliassime in the opening group match. He offered no breakpoints and dominated throughout the match. In the second group match, the Italian outlasted Zverev in straight sets. Shelton had no answer for his game in the third group match. Sinner is the defending champion in Turin. Last season, the Italian defeated Fritz in the final in straight sets.

Alex de Minaur has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the Australian lost the opening match to Alcaraz in straight sets. He led 5-3 in the opening set tiebreak, but fumbled under pressure. This is his second appearance in the ATP Nitto finals. In the second group match, de Minaur lost to Musetti in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. He led 5-3 in the deciding set, but fumbled under pressure. In the third group match, the Australian upset Fritz in straight sets, securing his semifinal spot. Last season, de Minaur did not make it past the group stage.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Sinner is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is the biggest favourite to win the title this week and leads 12-1 in head-to-head meetings against de Minaur. A few weeks ago, Sinner defeated de Minaur in Vienna in straight sets easily. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow.

That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -5.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365

Alcaraz – Auger-Aliassime: 15.11.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 4-3

Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the Spaniard defeated de Minaur in the opening group match in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set tiebreak, but turned it around. Other than that, Alcaraz dominated throughout the match. In the second group match, the Spaniard defeated Fritz in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 6-7. In the third group match, Alcaraz demolished Musetti in straight sets.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has won three of his last five matches. This week in Turin, the Canadian faced Sinner in the opening group match. The Italian served well, offering no breakpoints, and eventually won in straight sets. In the opening set, Auger-Aliassime played well and kept it close. However, Sinner dominated in the second set. In the second group match, the Canadian upset Shelton in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 4-6. Today, in the deciding group match, he upset Zverev in straight sets and secured his semifinal spot.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Auger-Aliassime is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He played well this week in Turin, defeating Shelton and Zverev in the group stage. He has nothing to lose, and if he serves well, we expect him to keep this match close.

That being said, Auger-Aliassime covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Felix Auger-Aliassime +4.5 games handicap @1.62 @bet365