ATP Race to Turin Qualifying Scenarios: de Minaur and Musetti eyeing qualification

The ATP Race to Turin is not over, even though we’re only days away from finding out what the final lineup of the ATP Finals will be. There are some interesting scenarios which we’ll go over, breaking down just who will be in Turin and who might not end up making the cut.

Four players are already certain to be in Turin. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev have booked their spots there. There is an interesting storyline developing about whether Novak Djokovic will play at the ATP Finals in Turin because he just withdrew from the Paris Masters.

We know that he’ll play in Athens, which is a city he has called home since a few months ago, but whether he will also go to Paris remains to be seen. He hasn’t withdrawn yet, though there is chatter about him possibly simply staying home in Athens after the event, which adds another dimension to the Race because then it matters who the first alternate is as well, a position that is also up for grabs.

The Likely Qualifiers

Besides the four that we named above, there are two that are very likely to make it to Turin as well. Americans Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz should be able to secure qualification because they are quite ahead of the challengers. Fritz essentially has over 1,000 points distance between himself and Ruud, who is in the battle for what should be the final spot should Djokovic skip the event.

It’s almost unthinkable that either Fritz or Shelton don’t secure a spot, as they need only a handful of points to do so mathematically. Neither has played particularly well, so early exits could complicate things further, which is something to keep an eye on.

The mathematical cutoff as of now stands at 4,240 points, which both Shelton and Fritz are shy of. Fritz has 3,845 while Shelton has 3,780. The next most likely one to qualify is Alex de Minaur, who has 3,745 points and is in pretty decent form. The Australian made the semifinal in Paris last year, and if he continues playing as well as he has indoors so far, then there is a very good chance that he’s going to book his place at the event much like last year.