ATP Shanghai Best Bets Including Djokovic vs Bergs

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai quarterfinals

Rune – Vacherot: 09.10.2025 09:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Holger Rune has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Rune lost to Brooksby in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, he lost to Fritz in the fourth round in straight sets. This is his third appearance in Shanghai. This week in Shanghai, Rune defeated Baez in the opening match in straight sets. In the third round, the Dane dominated against Humbert, winning in straight sets. Mpetshi Perricard fought hard against Rune, but the Dane won in three tight sets. Last season in Shanghai, Rune lost to Fritz in the fourth round in straight sets.

Valentin Vacherot has won six straight matches. This week in Shanghai, Vacherot qualified for the main draw tournament. In the final qualifying round, Vacherot defeated Draxl in three tight sets. In the opening main draw round, Vacherot won against Djere in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. His toughest challenge happened in the second round against Bublik. After losing the opening set 3-6, Vacherot turned the match around and won in three tight sets. Machac retired mid-match against Vacherot in the third round. Yesterday in the 1/8-Finals, Vacherot upset Griekspoor in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 4-6.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Rune is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. After winning against Griekspoor in three sets in inhuman conditions, we expect Vacherot to struggle against Rune. The Dane played well this week in Shanghai, and we expect him to win easily.

That being said, Rune covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune -3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365

Bergs – Djokovic: 09.10.2025 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Zizou Bergs has won four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, he upset Korda in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 1-4 in the second set, but turned it around. In the second round, Ruud retired in the deciding set against Bergs. The Belgian defeated Cerundolo in the third round in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Bergs defeated Diallo in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 3-6. Last season in Shanghai, Bergs lost to Dimitrov in the second round in a tight three-set match.

Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, Djokovic won against Cilic in the second round in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving four out of four breakpoints. In the third round, Djokovic defeated Hanfmann in three tight sets. After losing the opening set 4-6, the Serb turned the match around after playing for almost three hours. In the 1/8-Finals, he defeated Munar in three tight sets. Djokovic has been the champion here four times already. Last season, the Serb lost to Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Bergs is the underdog in this matchup, but we partially disagree. This has been his best season so far, and he has now cemented his top 50 status. On the other hand, Djokovic struggled physically this week in Shanghai and has already lost sets against Hanfmann and Munar. We expect Bergs to keep this match close.

That being said, Bergs covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Zizou Bergs +4.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365