ATP Shanghai Best Bets Including Rune vs Baez

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/32-Finals

Baez – Rune: 03.10.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: 3-3

Sebastian Baez has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Baez lost to Alcaraz in the opening round in straight sets. This week in Shanghai, Baez defeated Zhang in the opening round in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 2-6. Last season in Shanghai, Baez lost against Monfils in the second round in three tight sets.

Holger Rune has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Rune lost to Brooksby in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, he lost to Fritz in the fourth round in straight sets. This will be his third appearance in Shanghai.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Rune is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Baez has decent chances on clay against Rune. However, on hard courts, Rune has all the weapons to dominate in this matchup.

That being said, Rune covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune +4.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Cerundolo – Mannarino: 03.10.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Francisco Cerundolo has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Cerundolo lost to Tien in the opening round in three tight sets. This will be his third appearance in Shanghai. Last season in Shanghai, Cerundolo lost to Shevchenko in the second round in straight sets.

Adrian Mannarino has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Mannarino lost to Musetti in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets. This will be his eighth appearance in Shanghai. In the opening main draw round, the Frenchman defeated Berrettini in straight sets. Last season, Mannarino lost to Svajda in the opening round in three sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Mannarino is in great form and enjoys playing on fast, hard courts. He served well in the opening round against Berrettini. If he serves well, we expect him to be a better player.

That being said, Mannarino winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Adrian Mannarino winning @2.00 @bet365

Humbert – Thompson: 03.10.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: 1-2

Ugo Humbert has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Humbert lost in the opening round against Brooksby in straight sets. Last season in Shanghai, the Frenchman lost to Monfils in the third round in a tight three-set match.

Jordan Thompson has lost four of his last five matches. This week in Shanghai, Thompson defeated Holmgren in the opening round in three tight sets. Last week in Tokyo, Thompson lost to Nakashima in the opening round in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Humbert is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Last season in Paris, Humbert defeated Thompson in the quarterfinals in straight sets under similar conditions. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow.

That being said, Humbert winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert winning @1.67 @bet365