ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Baez

ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals

Altmaier – Shapovalov: 24.09.2025 09:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Daniel Altmaier has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he retired mid-match against de Minaur in the third round. He hopes for a solid result this week to secure his spot in the top 50.

Denis Shapovalov has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he lost to Sinner in the third round in four tight sets. This will be his fourth appearance in Tokyo. Shapovalov was a semifinalist here twice. In his last appearance in 2022, the Canadian lost to Fritz in the semifinals in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Shapovalov is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He enjoys playing on fast indoor courts, especially here in Tokyo. Shapovalov has played well over the past few months, and if he continues this way, he will soon become a top 20 player. We expect him to dominate on his serve and win easily.

That being said, Shapovalov covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Denis Shapovalov -3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Alcaraz – Baez: Time TBA
H2H: 2-0

Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Since winning the US Open, Alcaraz took a two-week break. Last week, the Spaniard played in the Laver Cup. He lost his opening match against Fritz in straight sets. In his second match, Alcaraz demolished Cerundolo in straight sets.

Sebastian Baez has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he lost to Harris in the opening round in straight sets. The clay court specialist has not had any remarkable results on hard courts this season so far.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is the new world number 1 and in great form. Baez played terribly on hard courts this season. We expect Alcaraz to dominate and win easily.

That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365

Bergs – Tabilo: Time TBA
H2H: 1-0

Zizou Bergs has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Bergs lost to Shang in the opening match in three tight sets. This will be his debut campaign in Tokyo.

Alejandro Tabilo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Tabilo had a great run. He eventually lost to Musetti in the final. Last season in Tokyo, the Chilean lost to Rune in the opening round in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Tabilo played many matches last week in Chengdu and will be physically exhausted coming into the opening round match in Tokyo. On the other hand, Bergs enjoys playing on indoor hard courts and leads 1-0 in head-to-head meetings against Tabilo. We expect Bergs to win.

That being said, Bergs winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Zizou Bergs winning @1.91 @bet365