ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Fritz vs Korda

ATP 500 Tokyo quarterfinals

Korda – Fritz: 28.09.2025 04:00 CEST
H2H: 1-2

Sebastian Korda has won three of his last five matches. The constant injuries ruined the season for the young American. Last week in Hangzhou, Wu upset Korda in the second round in three tight sets. This week in Tokyo, Korda defeated Giron in three tight sets in the opening match after losing the opening set. In the second round, the American defeated Shimabukuro in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all seven breakpoints. This is his debut campaign in Tokyo.

Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. Last week at the Laver Cup, the American team represented the World. In his opening match, Fritz defeated Alcaraz in straight sets. In his second match, Fritz won against Zverev in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, he defeated Diallo in the opening round in three tight sets. After losing the opening set, Fritz stepped up his level and turned the match around. In the second round, Fritz defeated Borges in straight sets after spending two hours on the court. He trailed 1-3 in the second set, but turned it around.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Fritz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Korda offered many breakpoints throughout the tournament. If Fritz serves well, we expect him to break Korda’s serve once in each set and win comfortably.

That being said, Fritz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz -2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Ruud – Vukic: 28.09.2025 09:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Casper Ruud has won four of his last five matches. Last week, Ruud played in the Laver Cup, where he won his singles match against Opelka in straight sets. This will be his fourth appearance in Tokyo. This week in Tokyo, Ruud defeated Mochizuki in three sets. After losing the opening set 4-6, he stepped up his level and dropped only two games in the second and third sets. In the second round, the Norwegian defeated Berrettini in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints. Last season in Tokyo, Ruud lost to Thompson in the opening round in straight sets.

Aleksandar Vukic has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Vukic lost to Bublik in the second round in a tight three-set match. This week in Tokyo, the Australian qualified for the main draw tournament. In the opening main draw round, Vukic defeated Dzumhur in three tight sets. Vukic demolished Altmaier in the second round in straight sets. He served great, not offering any breakpoints. Last season in Tokyo, Vukic failed to qualify for the main draw of the tournament.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Ruud is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He completely dominated against Berrettini in the 1/8-Finals. He served great this week, and with his experience, we expect him to dominate and win easily against Vukic.

That being said, Ruud covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud -3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365