ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Ruud vs Berrettini

ATP 500 Tokyo 1/8-Finals

Ruud – Berrettini: 26.09.2025 10:30 CEST
H2H: 5-3

Casper Ruud has lost three of his last five matches. Last week, Ruud played in the Laver Cup, where he won his singles match against Opelka in straight sets. This will be his fourth appearance in Tokyo. This week in Tokyo, Ruud defeated Mochizuki in three sets. After losing the opening set 4-6, he stepped up his level and dropped only two games in the second and third sets. Last season in Tokyo, the Norwegian lost against Thompson in the opening round in straight sets.

Matteo Berrettini has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Berrettini played his first competitive match since Wimbledon. In the opening round, the Italian was upset by Svrcina in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, Berrettini won the opening match against Munar in straight sets easily. He was great under pressure, saving all eight breakpoints. Last season in Tokyo, Berrettini retired mid-match against Fils in the opening round.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Ruud is the slight favourite in this matchup and we agree. Berrettini struggled with his form and injuries throughout the season. On the other hand, Ruud dominated against Mochizuki in the second and third sets. At this moment, the Norwegian is in better form and has more momentum coming into this matchup. He also leads 5-3 in head-to-head meetings and we expect him to get the sixth head-to-head meeting over Berrettini tomorrow.

That being said, Ruud winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud winning @1.67 @bet365

Brooksby – Darderi: Time TBA
H2H: first meeting

Jenson Brooksby has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Tokyo was at the US Open, where he lost to Cobolli in the second round. So far this season, the Brit has not had any remarkable results on hard courts. This week in Tokyo, Brooksby defeated Humbert in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 1-4 in the opening set, but turned it around.

Luciano Darderi has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Draderi lost against Tabilo in the opening match in straight sets. A week before, the Italian won the Challenger title in Genova on clay. This week in Tokyo, Darderi defeated Nishioka in the opening round in straight sets. He saved one set point in the opening set. Darderi offered no breakpoints in the second set. Last season in Tokyo, Darderi lost to Navone in the opening round in straight sets. He hopes for a solid result to keep his top 30 status.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Brooksby is the slight favourite in this matchup and we agree. He is a better hard-court player than Darderi and we expect him to dominate the rallies. Darderi never succeeded on hard courts.

That being said, Brooksby winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jenson Brooksby winning @1.53 @bet365