ATP Tokyo Best Bets Including Ruud vs Mochizuki

ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals

Ruud – Mochizuki: Time TBA
H2H: first meeting

Casper Ruud has lost three of his last five matches. Last week, Ruud played in the Laver Cup, where he won his singles match against Opelka in straight sets. This will be his fourth appearance in Tokyo. Last season in Tokyo, the Norwegian lost against Thompson in the opening round in straight sets.

Shintaro Mochizuki has won three of his last five matches. Last week in the Davis Cup, Mochizuki lost against Hanfmann in straight sets. This week in Tokyo, Mochizuki has been granted a wild card. He was the semifinalist here in 2023, when he lost to Karatsev in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Ruud is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played well in the Laver Cup and, in terms of quality, is a better player than Mochizuki. We expect him to dominate in this match and win easily.

That being said, Ruud covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud -4.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365

Thompson – Nakashima: Time TBA
H2H: 2-5

Jordan Thompson has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Thompson lost to Tabilo in the opening round in straight sets. He has never made it past the second round in Tokyo. Last season, Thompson lost to Nishikori in the second round in straight sets.

Brandon Nakashima has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Nakashima had a solid run. He eventually lost to Tabilo in the semifinals in straight sets. Last season in Tokyo, Nakashima lost against Humbert in the second round in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Nakashima is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He leads 5-2 in head-to-head meetings against Thompson. Last week in Chengdu, Nakashima played his best tennis, and we expect him to do so again this week in Tokyo.

That being said, Nakashima covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Brandon Nakashima -2.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365

Watanuki – Borges: 24.09.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Yosuke Watanuki has lost four straight matches. The last match he played was in Shanghai, where he played in the Challenger tournament and lost in the opening round against Noguchi. This week in Tokyo, Watanuki has been granted a wild card.

Nuno Borges has lost four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in the Davis Cup, where he was upset by Buse in three tight sets. He struggled with his form for the past few months.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Borges is the slight favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. He is completely out of form. The Asian players enjoy playing the Asian swing. With the help of the home crowd, we expect Watanuki to be a better player. Borges is far away from his level.

That being said, Watanuki winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Yosuke Watanuki winning @2.30 @bet365