ATP US Open Djokovic vs Alcaraz Best Bets

ATP US Open semifinals

Djokovic – Alcaraz: 05.09.2025 21:00 CEST
H2H: 5-4

Novak Djokovic has won five straight matches. This week, the Serb defeated Tien in the opening round in straight sets. In the second round, Svajda won the opening set 7-6. However, after that, Djokovic turned the match quickly around. In the third round, Djokovic defeated Norrie in four sets easily. He offered only one breakpoint throughout the match. Struff had no answer for his game in the fourth round. In less than two hours, Djokovic won in straight sets comfortably. Once again, Djokovic offered only one breakpoint and played his best tennis. His toughest challenge happened in the quarterfinals against Fritz. After spending almost four hours on the court, Djokovic won in four tight sets. He was great under pressure, saving eleven out of thirteen breakpoints. The Serb ended the match with ten aces and eight double faults.

Carlos Alcaraz has won eleven straight matches. Two weeks ago in Cincinnati, Alcaraz won the Masters 1000 title. He was the champion here in 2022. This week, the Spaniard outlasted Opelka in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the second round, Alcaraz demolished Bellucci in straight sets. The Spaniard has yet to lose a set in the tournament. In the third and fourth rounds, Alcaraz demolished Darderi and Rinderknech in straight sets. He is almost unplayable, but he also had a favourable draw so far. In the quarterfinals, the Spaniard defeated Lehecka in straight sets as well. He served well throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints. Last season, Van de Zandschulp upset him in the second round.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Djokovic is 38 and still one of the best players in the world. His fighting spirit is unmatchable. However, the intensity with which Alcaraz played this week will be tough for Djokovic to match. At the beginning of the season, Djokovic defeated Alcaraz in Australia in four sets. However, at the US Open, Djokovic tends to struggle. We believe that the Spaniard is fitter at the moment and has played way more matches than Novak. We expect Alcaraz to dominate and win tonight.

That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Second Bet

Novak Djokovic served great this past week in New York. He served ten aces in the quarterfinal match against Fritz. Before that, Djokovic averaged around thirteen aces, besides the opening round. However, Alcaraz has a great return, and it is hard to hit aces against him. In their past meeting at the Australian Open, Djokovic served only five aces in four sets. We expect a similar outcome tonight as well.

That being said, Djokovic hitting under eight aces is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic under 7.5 aces @-128 @FanDuel