ATP Washington Day 4 Predictions Including Ben Shelton vs Gabriel Diallo

Thursday’s action at the 2025 ATP Citi Open features an impressive amount of third-round matches, with all 16 remaining talents playing for a spot in the quarterfinals in Washington, D.C. As always, LWOT previews and predicts the upcoming matches, with this set of matches featuring a Top 10 player and home favorite Ben Shelton.

ATP Washington Day 4 Predictions 

Brandon Nakashima vs Cameron Norrie

Head-to-head: Norrie 3-1

Recently, Norrie hasn’t had the best couple of seasons on Tour, but his form has turned a corner, stunning No. 2 seed Lorenzo Musetti in his latest match here in Washington. The Brit won the pair’s last three matches–not dropping a set–while Nakashima hasn’t had to face as challenging opponents, taking out Ethan Quinn in his lone match this week. Nakashima arguably has the stronger backhand of the two, but Norrie is a bit more consistent off the ground and has a better forehand. He should have the momentum he needs to reach the quarterfinals, and look for him to win in a minor upset.
Prediction: Norrie in 3

Daniel Evans vs Corentin Moutet

Head-to-head: Moutet 2-0

Evans, the 2023 champion at this tournament, played a solid match to defeat home favorite Alex Michelsen in the second round. He’s on a seven-match winning streak at this tournament because he did not defend his title last year. However, Moutet has arguably looked stronger as of late; after appearing in the draw as a lucky loser, he brushed past Alexandre Muller 6-0 6-1. Moutet won the pair’s two meetings, but they haven’t played since 2021. While the Frenchman should be the favorite by form and ranking, I’m going for the upset here because of Evans’ experience at this tournament. He’s clearly seemed comfortable with the court speed and conditions, and the 35-year-old’s backhand slice and tricky serve can frustrate Moutet if the Frenchman can’t replicate his earlier strong form.
Prediction: Evans in 3

Alex de Minaur vs Jiri Lehecka

Head-to-head: 1-1

Lehecka struggled in his opening match win against Zachary Svadja, having to battle deep into a third set. De Minaur, the finalist here in 2018, took out Yunchaokete Bu 7-6(5) 6-2 in his first match, and his stronger second-set performance should give him confidence going into this match. While Lehecka cruised past the Aussie in their last meeting on grass this year, De Minaur prefers these types of hard courts and can grind down Lehecka with his defense in hot conditions, expected to hit 90 degrees on Thursday.
Prediction: De Minaur in 2

Ben Shelton vs Gabriel Diallo

Head-to-head: First meeting

There should be fireworks in this match, with two of the strongest servers and ball-strikers in the game facing off. While the two are vulnerable to unforced errors, they’re both young and should be laser-focused given it’s both their first meeting and a key event on their preferred surfaces. Both players coincidentally won their first match 6-3 6-4, not facing any issues on their serve. The serve should be the major factor in this match, and Shelton has a bit more experience on the big stage that could favor him deep in sets or in tiebreakers. Going for the American in a tough three-setter.
Prediction: Shelton in 3