Australian Open Semifinal Predictions: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula

The second semifinal of the Australian Open is set, and it will feature a fascinating matchup. Elena Rybakina has been a dominant elite this tournament, appearing untouchable even against top competition. Pegula has been equally dominant in her five matches, though she blows opponents off the court less–but the scorelines are just as good. Who will win this match? The big-hitting Kazakhstani or the precise American? As always, our writers share their thoughts on the match. Predicting this match are Ilemona Onekutu, Yesh Ginsburg, Manuel Traquete, and Ateet Shivastavra. We also have predictions for the other semifinal, between Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina.

Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Predictions

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula

Ilemona:
Elena Rybakina has cruised into the semifinals without dropping a set, highlighted by a commanding straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek as her serve and baseline aggression continue to thrive in Melbourne’s conditions. Jessica Pegula has built momentum with wins over defending champion Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova, leaning on her consistency and tactical variety through a demanding draw. Rybakina looks like a player on a mission and her ability to dictate points under pressure should prove decisive against Pegula’s defensive resilience.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2

Yesh:
I always underestimate Jessica Pegula for some reason. It’s probably because her game just doesn’t feel elite. There’s no overwhelming weapon that other top players have. And yet, Pegula has been absolutely dominant this Australian Open. There’s not much any other player has been able to do against the American’s depth and consistency. Her precision is a weapon of its own. Also, her serve has been elite this tournament. Is that enough to handle the power of Rybakina? Honestly, probably not. Especially considering that Anisimova more beat herself in the quarterfinals than Pegula beat her. Maybe Pegula can earn a set, but winning the match is a step too far.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2

Manuel:
There’s very little to choose between the two players; they are separated by one spot in the rankings, the head-to-head is 3-3 and both are playing great in this tournament. That said, Rybakina is a former Slam champion and that extra experience deep in Slams might well make the difference in her favor.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3

Ateet:
Elena Rybakina hit 11 aces to defeat Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals in straight sets. This will be Rybakina’s second Australian Open semifinal. Rybakina didn’t even play at her best and still was good enough to beat the World No.2. Jessica Pegula, on the other hand, continues her dominance and played a fantastic first set against Amanda Anisimova. Pegula was Rybakina’s toughest opponent at the WTA Finals last year, and I expect the same again. The Kazakh player will need her best serving day to win this.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3