Can Andrey Rublev Overcome His Grand Slam Quarterfinal Woes?

Let’s be honest for a moment. Armchair pundits are bored with it, his fans and allies are sick of hearing it, and more than anyone, he is probably sick of it.

In a sport where Alexander Zverev is routinely touted as the best active player never to win a Grand Slam, how much do you think Andrey Rublev wants to be talked about as the greatest player never to make it past a quarterfinal?

Yet here we are, still discussing it. And more so, because the man himself almost took it out of the conversation once more at the US Open, when he had to rally to defeat Hong Kong qualifier Coleman Wong in a five-set third round battle.

Now, as he prepares for his fourth-round match against Canadian maverick Félix Auger-Aliassime, who vanquished the aforementioned Zverev in a brilliant four-set display, the question remains: could this be Rublev’s chance to finally break through and make it eleven times lucky?

Can Rublev End His Quarterfinal Losing Streak?

Rublev’s Ups-and-Downs at the US Open

Despite battling through five sets and producing flashes of brilliant tennis, many would argue Rublev’s Round of 32 win over Coleman Wong should have been a straightforward three-set procession for the talented Russian.

Rublev himself is not worried about his game and took time to praise his opponent profusely for his bravery and shot-making, but the primary concern is not with the 15th seed’s tennis but with his temperament. For months, he has been trying to harness his emotions positively, but against Wong, the frustration came out, albeit only verbally. Against an empowered Auger-Aliassime, he will need to find that inner calm again if he is even to think ahead to a quarterfinal.

Rublev versus Auger-Aliassime

On paper, Rublev is the favourite to make the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows, boasting a 7-1 head-to-head record over Auger-Aliassime, including the last five. Yet the Canadian is hitting the ball as well as he ever has and completely overpowered a helpless Zverev in his third-round victory.

This alone means that Rublev will need to be keyed in for a long and harsh battle, one in which he must accept that his opponent will be able to clock up free points, especially on serve, that he cannot. Rublev, however, has the better all-around game and a remarkable ability to soak up pressure and find a way to win a point. This is something he will need to harness and use at every potential opportunity against the Canadian.

Best Chance For a Slam Semi?

Despite the 7-1 record over Auger-Aliassime, it will likely be closer to 50/50 on who comes out on top on the day. If Rublev does emerge victorious, though, his draw looks favourable for him to finally break free from the quarterfinal curse.

He will play either Swiss qualifier Leandro Riedi, who is enjoying the run of his life at Flushing Meadows, or, more likely, eighth seed Australian Alex De Minaur. If it is De Minaur, then it throws up an ironic twist. The talented Australian has his own Grand Slam quarterfinal hoodoo to break, having failed five times to reach the last eight at tennis’ blue-ribbon events.

Whatever happens, Rublev must stay confident in his own tremendous ability and hope the fickle gods of tennis smile upon him as he steps onto Arthur Ashe. A win would finally set him up with a great chance to slay the tedious statistic that has hovered over his career, a record that has long outstayed its welcome and one he hopes, in a week, will not need to be discussed again.