Can Elena Rybakina Put Miami Early Exit Behind Her?

Day Three at the Miami Open included impressive wins for Naomi Osaka, Taylor Townsend and Hailey Baptiste. There were surprisingly one-sided losses for Beatriz Haddad Maia and Donna Vekic. Yet, perhaps the front page story was Elena Rybakina making an early exit at the hands of home favourite Ashlyn Krueger.

Elena Rybakina exits early in Miami

The second set brought a shift in momentum. The 2022 Wimbledon Champion turned on the heat. While at times in the opening set she struggled to establish the imitative, she now seemed more like herself; dominant and ruthless. The latter stages were the start of a sublime twenty-two-point winning streak on serve. In such unyielding form, you could have forgiven Krueger for crumbling . Instead, she regrouped and returned stronger to edge out a gripping third set 6-4.

Rybakina’s performance was nothing disgraceful. However, a Grand Slam Champion with her ceiling is held to the highest of standards. Therefore, this is an disappointing result. After all, Dimmers Data rated her chances of victory at 77%. Moreover, it was an evenly fought contest between two competitors aiming to establish their dominance. This wasn’t a typical upset where the underdog frustrates the seed with defensively tricky tennis. Neither was it a case of Krueger playing far above her natural level, a one-off performance if you like. This seemed entirely sustainable and repeatable.

A Pattern of Unpredictability

The crisis train has not arrived. Even in a year that has included an accumulation of losses against the top-ranked players, she has consistently won the games you would expect her to. In the desert, she won her opening two rounds against Suzan Lamens and Katie Boulter, winning four straight sets 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 and 6-0. With two wins under her belt, and seemingly playing her way into the tournament, she won just three games against Mirra Andreeva in an alarming defeat.

At the Australian Open, she lost just twelve games in her opening three rounds, before running into Madison Keys. In reality, this is nothing new. Last Wimbledon, in the run-up to a semifinal loss against Barbora Krejcikova, she won three matches on the bounce, losing just nine games in the process.

With players of Rybakina’s style, fluctuation in performance is common. When she tees off her flat big-hitting game, it’s good enough to beat anyone. Let’s not forget her remarkable 6-0, 6-3 victory over Aryna Sabalenka in Brisbane, just weeks before the Belarussian would double her Australian Open trophy tally.

Yet, when she doesn’t find her range, she can be vulnerable. Her movement understandably isn’t first class. Despite her massive serve, she isn’t overly confident at the net. With Rybakina, it’s plan A or no plan, and often that is enough.

As The Athletic revealed, Rybakina suffered a harrowing experience with former coach Stefano Vukov. They reported unnerving behaviour, with the WTA concluding that the thirty-seven-year-old had violated the court of conduct. Despite a verdict and suspension, it may not be as simple as turning a page. The mental impact of these happenings will only be known by Rybakina, but it would be completely understandable if it was affecting her headspace on and off the court.

At a place where she reached the final back-to-back times, an early exit was unexpected. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, a player in Krueger’s form always had the potential to be a dangerous opponent. It’s early days but she seems to be joining Linda Noskova and Diana Shnaider as the crop to challenge in the future, along with Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva higher up the pyramid. She announced herself at the Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, with a run to the final, including impressive victories over Daria Kasatkina, Leylah Fernandez and Linda Noskova. There are clear signs of a promising career.

What’s Next

The clay-court swing awaits. Rybakina made her name with a victory over Serena Williams in their only ever clash at the 2021 French Open. Yet, since then it’s not been a happy hunting ground. A twice quarter-finalist, she will be looking to go one further this season. After that, it is Wimbledon, where you can never count her out.