Can Jacob Fearnley Put Early Stuggart Loss Behind Him?

Jacob Fearnley exited the Boss Open after a first-round loss to Brandon Nakashima. The Scot took the first set 6-4 but a spirited fightback from Nakashima saw the next two sets go his way 7-6 6-1. Just a couple of weeks away from Wimbledon, it stands as less than ideal preparation. However, with the HSBC Championship and Lexus Eastbourne Open around the corner, he has time to turn his fortunes around.

Jacob Fearnley Exits Stuggart Early

Grass Court Serving Vital

While the serve has always been the most important shot in tennis, this effect is exaggerated on grass courts. With shorter rallies and a quicker court, the amount of free points you can earn from your first shot is vital. The one-two punch becomes incredibly effective. Namely, if you aren’t gaining the upper hand straight away, you will likely struggle.

This was displayed in Fearnley’s opening-round loss to Nakashima. Ultimately, it was a consequence of inconsistent serving. In the opening set that he took 6-4, the Scot made 90% of his first serves and won 71% of those points. Yet, in the second set, his 1st serve percentage dropped from 90% to 49%. Such a drastic fall-off is substantial to requirements for an ATP grass event. In the deciding set, which he would lose 6-1, Fearnley won just 36% of his points behind his first serve.

These substandard numbers simply won’t fly. Neither, are they a new revelation. Throughout 2024, Fearnley made just 60% of his first serves. On the clay at times, and even on a slower hard court, his solid baseline game has compensated. Overall though, these numbers aren’t sustainable.

With two third-round Grand Slam appearances to his name, he should be looking to break into the Top 32  in order to be seeded at the Grand Slam events. Yet, if you compare his 2024 serving percentages to the five players from rank 35-31 (Alex Michelsen, Tallon Griekspoor, Jiri Lehecka, Hubert Hurcakz, and Nakashima) it ranks bottom, with 67%, 64%, 61.5%, 65% and 65% in comparison. So far this season, Fearnley’s percentage has risen by a measly 0.1%.

A Solid Baseline Game

In comparison, Fearnley is characteristically reliable from the back. It’s this point craft and consistency that has allowed him to surge in the rankings from #270 this time last year to currently sit as #49. Although, that is set to drop ten places next Monday.

He excels with central balls and can create terrific angles with his forehand spin and owns a flat quick backhand. Those qualities allowed him to fight back against Nakashima in the second set and force a tiebreak even when his serve wasn’t firing.

His greatest strength can become his weakness though. In the final set against the American, Fearnley began to lose his range, making twelve unforced errors compared to six winners. On a quicker more winner-dominant surface like grass, this is incredibly poor. Even in his third-round loss to Cameron Norrie at Roland Garros, he was shown to be rather one-dimensional and lacking a plan B.

Another College System Product

Fearnley, like his compatriot Norrie, is a product of the college tennis system in the States. In the past few years, the system has produced the likes of John Isner, Steve Johnson, Kevin Anderson, and Ben Shelton.

Like these players, Fearnley has benefited from the consistent match play and pressure that the college circuit brings. He spoke to BBC last year about how it allowed him to grow when he didn’t quite feel ready for the tour,

“I was always a bit physically underdeveloped and school was a big thing – my parents wanted me to have something to fall back on if tennis didn’t work. I also didn’t feel ready mentally to play tennis. I wanted five years to develop my game, develop as a person, socialise and meet new people.”

The fall-back option that it provides can take pressure off its players, and allow them to flourish both on and off the court. It’s a route that the ATP clearly values as since 2023, the Accelerated Programme has offered free Challenger places for the highest performing professionals in the Intercollege Tennis System.

An Impressive First Year On Tour

Fearnley announced himself to the tennis world this time last year, battling through the qualifying rounds and the main draw to lift the 2024 Nottingham Open. At 22, the home favourite lifted his first Challenger tournament and all but confirmed a wildcard to the Wimbledon Championships. A week before his Grand Slam debut, he lost to eventual semifinalist Billy Harris at the Eastbourne Open.

He would run into Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon second round, which would prove a bridge too far. Afterwards, he continued to build momentum, winning two more Challenger events at Lincoln and Rennes.

2025 has been successful to date, with the 23-year-old making the third round at both the Australian Open and the French Open. While he has yet to make a deep run on tour, he has consistently collided with quality players. Exits at Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona and Madrid have come at the hands of Joao Fonseca, Alexander Zverev, Alex De Minaur, and Grigor Dimitrov.

An Improved Forehand

Part of the reason he has been able to forge such a rise is the development of the forehand wing. At first, it seemed a rather funky technique. The massive takeback and left hand action somewhat resembled Karen Khachanov and therefore raised questions about its practicality against big hitters who would take time away from him at the baseline. It certainly seemed to be an issue against Djokovic, whose relentless depth forced a series of errors from it.

Yet, over time, this shot has grown to be more resistant and a relative strength in his game. He has kept the whipped technique which allows him to widen the court with angles but play with considerable pace as well. When playing against Fearnley, you have to get him moving laterally rather than vertically, as he is so comfortable taking the ball on the rise and gaining court territory.

All this led to excitement over the return to the grass court season, but as mentioned, his display against Nakashima underwhelmed. However, it’s important to note that Nakashima is an esteemed grass court player who made the Wimbledon quarter-finals three years ago.

Figuring Out Element

Despite being 23 years old, Fearnley is still relatively new to the Tour. Opponents are still fresh to his game, which is to his advantage. As he plays more often though, pre-match analysis and game plans become easier.

This is a pattern we see across sports. Whether it’s new managers in football, or a youngster breaking onto the tennis tour, ignorance is bliss. So, for Fearnley to progress into the top 32, he will likely either have to adapt parts of his game or improve some of the key ingredients. As mentioned earlier, the service is a big area for potential improvement. Moreover, developing a more effective backhand slice or finding more comfort in his net game could see him reap the rewards.