Could the Heat Derail Jannik Sinner?

Jannik Sinner has been the unquestionably been the best player in Melbourne for the past two years. That dominance is why he won the Australian Open both times with relative ease. There were occasional setbacks, moments where opponents pushed him, but for the most part the Italian cruised through the draws. His biggest rival over the past few years has been Carlos Alcaraz, and the Spaniard has largely disappointed in Australia, leaving Sinner to reign unchallenged.

Few expect anything different this year. The consensus is that Sinner will either win the trophy again or at minimum reach the final. The logic is sound. Alcaraz hasn’t shown much in Australia and until he does, there will always be a question mark about his chances in Melbourne.

Novak Djokovic remains in the conversation, and while he’s still dangerous, he doesn’t stack up to either Sinner or Alcaraz at this stage. It’s not a lack of talent but rather the combination of age and facing two players in their absolute prime that makes his path difficult. He could make things interesting if everything aligns perfectly, but betting against Sinner feels foolish given the recent history.

So what could effectively stop the Italian from winning his third consecutive title? There’s one factor that poses a genuine threat, and it showed up glaringly in his most recent match.

When the Sun Becomes the Opponent

Australia is a warm continent, especially in January, and while Melbourne isn’t the desert heat of Alice Springs, it can get brutally hot. In Sinner’s most recent match against Elliot Spizziri, the Italian struggled massively in the conditions. It was his weakest performance in Australia in years, which is why the American took the opening set.

This isn’t the first time heat has been a problem for him. We’ve seen him struggle in similar conditions in places like Miami. While he’s improved his heat tolerance over the years, extreme temperatures still affect him noticeably. He’s from South Tyrol, a region of northern Italy not exactly known for scorching weather. That background doesn’t prepare you for the kind of oppressive heat that can settle over Melbourne Park during the Australian summer.

Can the Heat Actually Stop Him?

Even with these obvious and glaring issues in hot conditions, Sinner is unlikely to be derailed by the weather. The forecast for the upcoming days looks manageable, with only a handful of days expected to bring extreme heat. On those days, tournament organizers will likely close the roofs on the main courts to protect the athletes, giving Sinner the controlled environment where he thrives.

But here’s the hypothetical that matters: if he faces Alcaraz in a final played in extreme heat with the roof open, the Italian would be at a significant disadvantage. Alcaraz grew up training in the Spanish heat and has never shown the same vulnerability to high temperatures. In that scenario, the conditions could swing what would otherwise be a close match decisively in the Spaniard’s direction.

Fortunately for Sinner, that scenario seems unlikely to materialize this year. But it’s worth acknowledging that outside of a sensational performance from Alcaraz, the heat has become the Italian’s biggest nemesis in Melbourne. Not Djokovic’s experience, not the pressure of defending titles, not any particular opponent’s game style. The sun. An opponent he can’t strategize against, and can’t beat through superior shot-making.

For now, the forecast suggests he won’t have to. But in tennis, as in weather, conditions can change quickly.