French Open predictions: Murray vs. Wawrinka, Nardi vs. Muller for Sun. 5/26

French Open Predictions

Andy Murray (+165) vs Stan Wawrinka (-200)

2:15 p.m. ET

Murray and Wawrinka were once at the top of the tennis game. Now the two veterans — who are approaching 40-years old — are outside the top 70 of the ATP rankings, meaning there are no realistic thoughts of them contending at a Grand Slam.

Regardless, from both a betting and pure tennis fandom perspective, this is one of the more intriguing matches of the opening round at Roland Garros.

Murray leads the head-to-head series 13-to-9, while Wawrinka owns a fairly significant career advantage on clay (5-1). However, the last time these two met on the surface was four years ago, when Wawrinka cruised to an easy three-set victory.

The last few years have consisted of injuries and very little highs for both players — Murray and Wawrinka haven’t won an ATP title since 2019 and 2017, respectively.

As for their current forms, nothing has really stood out on either side, particularly during the clay-court season.

Wawrinka has played more matches than Murray, but he lost three straight first-round duels and his last two events have come at the Challenger Tour level. He’s 2-7 overall on the year at the ATP level, regardless of surface.

Meanwhile, Murray hasn’t played an ATP-level clay-court matchup this season. His lone tournament came on the Challenger Tour, where he lost to 115th-ranked Gregoire Barrere in his second match.

That’s concerning, but I still think there’s value on Murray in this spot from both a raw number and intangible angle.

First, Murray edges Wawrinka in current clay court Elo Ratings (30th to 73rd) and blended ratings (a half-and-half mix between a player’s overall and clay court Elo Ratings). That gives us solid value that Murray can at least keep things close in this match.

I have concerns about the Brit’s conditioning, but against a similarly-aged opponent in Wawrinka, that becomes less of a factor.

I think this is going to be grueling, long match, and no one will ever question Murray’s heart (especially on the sport’s biggest stage). Remember, these former superstars won’t get many more chances given their age and injury history.

I’ll play Murray to keep it within the 3.5 games and the over 38.5 at DraftKings.

Pick: Andy Murray +3.5 games | Over 38.5 games

Luca Nardi (+120) vs Alexandre Muller (-150)

8:15 a.m. ET

Murray-Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal-Alexander Zverev will capture most of the first-round headlines, but this is one of the more underrated duels for hardcore tennis fans.

20-year old Italian Luca Nardi is having a successful clay court season, beating Daniel Altmaier in Rome and winning a Challenger Tour event in Naples.

But that hasn’t been the highlight of the campaign for the youngster. Instead, it was his victory over Novak Djokovic to reach the Round of 16 at Indian Wells as a lucky loser.

While Muller doesn’t have a Djokovic win on his resume, he’s had a more productive clay court season. The 27-year-old came through qualifying in Rome to eventually reach the round of 16, beating Andrey Rublev and Arthur Fils in the process.

In other words, Muller is red hot and is now seeking revenge on a player who eliminated him from qualifying at a 1000-event in Monte-Carlo.

If you dive into the stats of that particular match, it could’ve swung either way, especially if Muller was able to convert a few more first serves. It was a much better performance from Muller than the first time the two met back in 2022, which proves that the Frenchman is able to make sound adjustments based on matchup.

I love Nardi’s potential long term, but this is the Italian’s first ever Grand Slam main draw match. While Muller doesn’t have a ton of experience himself, he still faced Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in three different majors last season.

Muller has three key factors working in his favor: peak form, (double) revenge and more familiarly/experience.

I’ll grab -1.5 (-125) at bet365 as I expect Muller to continue his hot run.

Pick: Alexandre Muller -1.5 games