Is Men’s Tennis Boring? The Current State of the ATP Tour

After Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner in this year’s US Open final, it marked the third successive Major final involving both men. The duo has combined to win the previous eight Grand Slams. But what exactly does this mean for them, the rest of the tour, and tennis as a whole?

Current State of the ATP Tour

The Ultimate Gatekeepers

Alcaraz produced one of the greatest comebacks in history to beat Sinner in the French Open final earlier in the year, in what was one of the best matches tennis has ever seen.

In the final Slam of the year, the two met again. Alcaraz beat Sinner on the Italian’s best surface to claim his sixth Major title, and his second in New York.

If not for Novak Djokovic rolling back the years and defeating Alcaraz at the quarterfinal stage of this year’s Australian Open, we may well have seen a “Sincaraz” final at all four Majors. Still, for the first time in the Open Era, every men’s Grand Slam final in a single season was contested by the No.1 and No.2 in the world, as Alexander Zverev reached the final in Melbourne as the second seed.

Djokovic Still Fighting

It’s glaringly apparent that Alcaraz and Sinner are a significant level above the rest of the tour. Then there lies Djokovic, who, at 38 years old, is still the youngsters’ closest competition. At major tournaments this year, Djokovic has virtually breezed past everyone other than “Sincaraz”.

Since the 24-time Major champion beat Alcaraz (who is a remarkable 16 years younger than the Serb) at the Australian Open, he has lost to either Sinner or Alcaraz at the other three Majors—all at the semifinal stage, and all in straight sets.

Djokovic is evidently the third-best player in the world, despite what the rankings have said for the majority of the year, given Djokovic’s lack of activity outside the Slams.

A significant level below Djokovic is where the rest of the tour finds itself. They can be split into two categories – those born in the 90s (often dubbed the failed generation) and the rising stars born in the 2000s.

Best of the Rest

Players born in the 90s are a mind-blowing 2-19 in Grand Slam finals. Only Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem from that generation have won a Major title, with the latter’s victory coming against a fellow 90s-born player.

While Medvedev is a Grand Slam winner, he has also lost 5 Major finals. He is still the most successful player from the 90s, as he has also reached world No.1, but the Russian’s best days appear to be behind him, as he only won one match at the Major level this season.

Incredibly, tennis seems to have almost skipped an entire generation – the big three were all born in the 80s, and “Sincaraz” in the 2000s, leaving those born in the 90s left to wonder what might have been.

There are two clear dominant forces, but fellow 2000s-born players might well be where their future competition lies. Players like Jack Draper and Ben Shelton have enjoyed meteoric rises in the last year, just not to the extent of Alcaraz and Sinner.

Many are dubbing 19-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca to be the one to compete with Alcaraz and Sinner for Major titles, but it is still too early in his career to say for sure.

One thing is for sure: Alcaraz and Sinner are on a different level from the rest of the ATP. Unless something significant changes, it is hard to see anything other than the two sharing Major titles for the foreseeable future, and you have to question how entertaining that would truly be.