Jack Draper’s Fragile Promise

The trajectory seemed inevitable. Jack Draper‘s breathtaking run to the 2024 US Open semifinals wasn’t just a breakthrough; it largely seemed like a coronation postponed. For years, those who’d watched him closely knew what the rest of the tennis world was only beginning to discover: here was a player with everything. The serve, the forehand, the winning mentality. All the raw materials of greatness, waiting only for their moment.

That moment appeared to arrive in the California desert. When Draper captured the 2025 Indian Wells Masters title, the narrative wrote itself. The ascent had begun and superstardom waited.

But tennis, well, it’s not really one you can make a great living out of predicting.

The Unraveling

What happened since hasn’t damaged Draper’s reputation as a formidable talent; nobody’s writing him off, not in any meaningful sense at least. Instead, something more insidious has taken hold: a relentless sequence of injuries that’s kept him sidelined for months at a stretch, transforming promise into question mark.

The summer told the story in miniature. Draper looked sharp at Wimbledon before his body betrayed him again, forcing him out of the sport until the US Open. He returned for that tournament despite being compromised, a decision that reality punished. The withdrawal that followed marked the end of his 2025 season. Since then: silence.

The Australian swing was meant to signal renewal: first the United Cup, then the year’s opening major. Both became footnotes when Draper announced he couldn’t compete. Four months have passed since he last struck a ball in competition. Nearly six months since he’s strung together any meaningful stretch of matches.

For a 24-year-old who should be experiencing some of the healthiest years he’ll have as a tennis player, the reality is sobering.

Beyond Woes

Call it what it is. These are not injury woes, as that phrase suggests temporary setbacks in otherwise smooth roads. Draper’s situation has long since passed that threshold. These are proper, career-altering injury problems. It’s unfortunate because there were whispers that followed him even as a promising junior. Now it seems like they materialized into fact.

The pattern deepens with each passing season, and patterns in professional sports rarely reverse themselves. Bodies don’t typically become more durable with age and accumulated mileage. They break down even further.

Consider the baseline for elite success. The best players in the world, the ones who dominate, play between 70 and 80 matches annually. Its only natural, as the more you win the more you tend to play. Carlos Alcaraz has posted four consecutive seasons above 70 matches, twice surpassing 80. Jannik Sinner has exceeded 60 matches in five straight years, multiple times crossing the 70-match threshold.

This is what some of the best do if health permits. It’s what Draper should be doing as well however….

This year: 40 matches. Last year, relatively healthy by his standards: 61. The year before: 49. Before that: 66. Two seasons severely compromised, two others affected in smaller but significant ways. Even in his best years, he’s not near the volume that defines the sport’s elite.

For someone who should be at his physical peak, the trend cuts the wrong way. And if Sinner offers a glimmer of hope as a player who beat his own fragility, the history of the sport offers far more cautionary tales.

The Spectre of What Might Have Been

All the tools remain. The talent hasn’t diminished. In the moments when Draper has been healthy and whole, he’s shown exactly what he could become: a force and a champion. With more consistency, who knows what kind of champion he might become, perhaps even a Grand Slam one.

But if this continues, that potential will end up as the saddest phrase in sports: what might have been. Draper risks joining that unfortunate list of players whose career never quite took off as it should have. It’s not just a thing of the past.

Take the WTA for example. Two very notable cases in recent years are those of Marketa Vondrousova and Karolina Muchova. They are phenomenal when fit, however being fit is rare.  Both have lived careers punctuated by injury, as fans glimpsed their brilliance only in flashes rather than sustained campaigns. Draper, increasingly, resembles them.

The distinction that matters: he’s still only 24. Time remains on his side. There’s space to rebuild, to change his training, and find whatever combination of treatment and adaptation might unlock durability.