Massive Wimbledon upset a boost to Carlos Alcaraz's title hopes

Entering Wimbledon, Rinderknech was No. 72 in the world rankings. Per Tennis Abstract, he had an 8-17 match record in 2025 before his upset victory and was 82-101 for his career. With the win, he advanced to the second round at All England Club for the second consecutive season.

The result was a potentially massive break for Alcaraz, 22, should he reach the semis. After being pushed to the brink in the Round of 128 against World No. 138 Fabio Fognini in a 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 win, Alcaraz must play better to reach that stage. But for someone who is 19-2 all-time at Wimbledon and has won 15 consecutive matches, we wouldn't be surprised if Alcaraz quickly rounds into form.

If he does, avoiding a 12th meeting with Zverev, 28, could be critical to a third consecutive Wimbledon title.

In 11 previous matches, Zverev leads, 6-5. The two have alternated wins in four previous grand slam events, with Alcaraz winning most recently at the 2024 Roland Garros final.

Alcaraz's path to the final cleared with Zverev's loss. He is a combined 10-5 with a winning record against each of his projected opponents from the second round through the semifinals — qualifier Oliver Tarvet (second round), No. 28 Felix Auger-Aliassime (third round), No. 14 Andrey Rublev (fourth round), No. 12 Frances Tiafoe (quarterfinals) and No. 5 Taylor Fritz (semifinals).