Predicting the 2026 ATP Year-End Top 10

One of the more enjoyable offseason exercises for sports fans is to opine on the upcoming season. Although the tennis offseason is undoubtedly the shortest in all of professional sports, we at LWOT are still here to provide our 2026 season predictions (can you believe the first ATP events of the new season begin in less than two weeks?).

Today, we dive into our year-end ATP Tour top 10 predictions. Did your favorite player make the list?

Predicting the 2026 ATP Year-End Top 10

No.’s 10-9

No. 10: Jack Draper

2025 Finish: No. 10

Jack Draper was one of the toughest players to place on this list, especially given his recent withdrawal from the 2026 Australian Open. If healthy, he could finish the season as high as No. 3, but the nagging shoulder injury that ended his 2025 campaign will, unfortunately, affect his 2026 season.

The 24-year-old Brit is as talented as anyone not named Alcaraz or Sinner. His serve is the great equalizer, and his 2025 record of 30-9 was the highest winning percentage on the ATP Tour outside of Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic. When fully healthy, the Brit is a serious contender in every event he plays.

No. 9: Joao Fonseca

2025 Finish: No. 24

It is no secret that Joao Fonseca is the next “big thing” on the ATP Tour. In 2025, his matches consistently drew the largest crowds on tour, save for those featuring Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic. The talent certainly matches the hype.

The 19-year-old was 6-4 in Grand Slam matches and 7-7 in Masters 1000 matches, something I only see improving in 2026. On top of that, I expect Fonseca to play closer to 30 tournaments compared to the 21 he played in 2025. A few significant breakthroughs combined with a longer, more consistent schedule have Fonseca’s ceiling as a Top 10 player in 2026.

No.’s 8-6

No. 8: Novak Djokovic

2025 Finish: No. 4

As long as Novak Djokovic is still an active ATP Tour competitor, it is impossible not predict him as a Top 10 finisher. Djokovic will be 39 in May, and most of his efforts will be focused on the four slams. However, he is as capable as anyone, save Alcaraz and Sinner, of making a deep run at the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open.

A few strong slam results paired with some Masters 1000 success should have Djokovic finishing in the Top 10 for the 19th time in the last 20th seasons.

No. 7: Lorenzo Musetti

2025 Finish: No. 8

Lorenzo Musetti is the definition of consistency. He finished 2025 with a year-end high of World No. 8 despite not capturing a title (he reached three finals). The 23-year-old Italian was 17-4 in the first match of tournaments in 2025 and reached 11 quarterfinals. He has proven himself to be one of the top clay-courters in the world, compiling a 19-4 record on the surface in 2025.

His game will continue to improve around the edges, and the titles will come. Expect another strong season for the second-best Italian in the world.

No. 6: Daniil Medvedev

2025 Finish: No. 13

Despite his on-court antics and lack of reliability over the last two years, I still believe in Daniil Medvedev. He is entering his 30-year-old season, defending his least amount of points in seven years. After posting an abysmal 1-4 record in Grand Slams in 2025, I have zero reason to believe he will not return to his second-week form in 2026. Medvedev is still, in my mind, a top-five bet to win a hard-court slam.

No.’s 5-3

No. 5: Taylor Fritz

2025 Finish: No. 6

Despite being the year-end No. 1-ranked American every year since 2021, Taylor Fritz still seems underdiscussed on the global scene. All he has done is win 47+ matches in each of the last four seasons and become the first American male to reach a Grand Slam final since Andy Roddick in 2009.

Fritz has a fair amount of points to defend in 2026, but should feel confident he can improve on his 11-4 slam record. I also like his chances of playing better in the Masters events, where he finished 16-8 in 2025.

No. 4: Ben Shelton

2025 Finish: No. 9

Ben Shelton entered the ATP Tour in the summer of 2022 as a raw college prospect lauded for his massive serve. In each of the subsequent offseasons, he has added to his repertoire, culminating in a year-end No. 9 finish in 2025.

His serve is not something that can be taught, and it is a weapon that gives him a chance to beat anyone on tour. He has always been a threat in Grand Slam draws; a breakthrough is imminent. If he can continue to improve his week-in, week-out consistency, Shelton can pair his significant results with 250 and 500-level titles to capture his first career year-end top-five finish.

No. 3: Alexander Zverev

2025 Finish: No. 3

Although still alluded by a Grand Slam title, one can not take away Alexander Zverev’s consistency over the last nine seasons. The German has finished in the top seven every year since 2017, except for his injury-plagued 2022. He has finished inside the top four five times. Zverev loves playing tennis and should return to a full schedule. Although he is focused on that elusive slam title, expect him to have a strong season at the Masters events. 2025 was just the second year since 2016 in which he did not reach a final at this level.

No.’s 2-1

No. 2: Carlos Alcaraz

2025 Finish: No. 1

Before opening this article, I am sure you knew who was No. 1 and No. 2 on this list. But what order would they be in?

After finishing No. 1 in 2025, I have Carlos Alcaraz falling one spot back in 2026. This has more to do with who is No. 1 than it does with the Spaniard. Alcaraz is prone to inconsistent play, especially outside of slams. Five of his nine losses this season came to players ranked outside the Top 10. In a race to year-end No. 1, every point matters.

No. 1: Jannik Sinner

2025 Finish: No. 2

After becoming the first Italian in ATP history to finish as year-end No. 1 in 2024, Jannik Sinner ceded the crown to Alcaraz this past year. In 2026, I see him taking it back.

Sinner missed three months of action in 2025 and still fell just 550 points short of Alcaraz. He lost just six matches in 2025, and four of them were to his Spanish rival. Sinner is the more reliable and consistent player, and should be the favorite to win every hardcourt event he competes in. Expect another phenomenal season from the Italian.