Unstoppable on hard courts: Jannik Sinner eyes Roger Federer record beyond Novak Djokovic’s reach

Jannik Sinner’s rivalry with Carlos Alcaraz has become the defining storyline in men’s tennis. But when it comes to recent hard-court dominance, there is no debate, the Italian stands alone.

As the US Open approaches, the 23-year-old Wimbledon champion finds himself on the verge of matching a record held by Roger Federer and out of reach even for Novak Djokovic. Since his loss to Alexander Zverev at the 2023 US Open, Sinner has been untouchable at the hard-court majors. He has won the last three, the 2024 and 2025 Australian Opens, and the 2024 US Open, stringing together 21 consecutive victories in Grand Slam matches on the surface.

His overall run on hard courts has been even more staggering. Since the start of last year’s Cincinnati Masters, Sinner has posted a 37-1 record, collected five titles, and helped Italy to Davis Cup glory. His only loss in that time came in early 2024, and since then, he has looked more dominant with each passing event.

Now, as he begins his US swing and prepares to defend his US Open crown, Sinner is within striking distance of a feat Djokovic has never achieved: winning four hard-court Grand Slams in a row.

Federer, however, accomplished it spectacularly, lifting five consecutive hard-court majors from the 2005 US Open to the 2007 US Open.

If Sinner triumphs in New York next month and follows up in Melbourne in January, he will equal that streak and put himself in rarefied company.

There is though another Federer benchmark Sinner could yet target: the best hard-court season in the Open Era.

In 2005, Federer went an astonishing 50-1, a 98% win rate. Sinner’s 2024 season already ranks as the third-best ever at 55-3 (94.8%), while his current 2025 campaign sits at 38-2 (95%) as the US hard-court swing gets underway.

Numbers from TennisViz underline his supremacy. Five of eight performance categories on hard courts are topped by Sinner, and his overall rating of 9 on the surface comfortably outperforms his clay and grass numbers.

So what makes the Italian so good on hard courts? Speaking in April 2024, Sinner pointed to his familiarity with the surface and the demands of the ATP calendar. "I used to practise a lot on clay from 14 to 20, but after [that] most of the tournaments go to hard courts, so you play a little bit less," he explained.

That is reflected in his early career match breakdown. In 2020, he played 24 matches on hard courts, compared to just 10 on clay and none on grass.

In 2021, the split was even starker, 53 matches on hard, with only 16 on clay and two on grass. By 2023, he had played 57 on hard, 11 on clay, and 11 on grass. Across his career so far, he has contested 172 matches on hard, 56 on clay, and just 19 on grass.

The results speak for themselves: of his 20 ATP titles, 17 have come on hard courts. But 2024 showed he is becoming increasingly dangerous on other surfaces, with a French Open final appearance on clay and a Wimbledon title on grass. If that trend continues, Sinner could soon expand his dominance beyond the surface he calls home.

For now, the focus remains on hard courts, and the looming question is whether anyone, including Alcaraz, can stop him. Their rivalry has produced some of the sport’s most thrilling matches, but on this surface, Sinner holds the clear edge.

With his form, confidence, and track record, Sinner enters the 2025 US Open as the player to beat.

As the Cincinnati Open is underway, the Italian has had a fiery start, easily dispatching Colombian Daniel Elahi Galán Riveros in a 6-1, 6-1 victory completed in just 59 minutes.