What Happened to Daniil Medvedev?

Just three years later, he is out of the top ten. He has gone more than two seasons without a title and has a 1–3 record in his last four hard-court matches.

For me, there are two turning points in his career. Both came after devastating Australian Open final defeats. He was two sets up in each but lost both. In 2022, Rafael Nadal came back to beat him. In 2024, Jannik Sinner did the same.

The 2022 loss was his lowest moment. In his press conference, he famously said the “kid has stopped dreaming.” As bad as it was, it also acted as a reset button. Soon after, we learned he had a hernia. He took a break, and while 2022 did not meet his high standards, the time off allowed him to tinker with his game.

The Rebound of Early 2023

The results of that work showed in early 2023. Medvedev won three straight titles, reached the Indian Wells final, and then won the Miami Open. He followed it with another Masters 1000 title, in Rome on clay no less. That run included a Wimbledon semifinal and another US Open final. While not quite at his 2019–2021 peak, he was firmly a top-five player again.

The Second Turning Point: 2024 Australian Open

Then it happened again. Medvedev was one set from the Australian Open title. Once more, he lost. This time, the defeat felt different. He had played multiple five-set marathons and simply ran out of gas.

The aftermath, however, was worse than in 2022. Since that final, Medvedev has gone 38–23 on hard courts, winning just over 60% of his matches. He has reached only one final, where Carlos Alcaraz beat him decisively. The mental aspects of his game have also been questioned, as Medvedev is rather famous for his on court rants at times.

Decline of His Game

How does a player go from such highs to such lows so quickly?

First, physical decline is natural with age. But Medvedev’s game was built on relentless defense. When that wall began to crumble, his other skills could not fully compensate.

That leads to a bigger truth. No matter how high a player climbs, superior technique eventually wins. Too often, Medvedev loses tight matches with a missed volley or a mishit forehand at the net. Over time, those small weaknesses catch up.

The New Era Problem

Another factor has been the rise of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Since Vienna 2023, Medvedev is 1–11 against the pair. Without them, he might have won another Slam or two and several Masters 1000 titles. But they are here, and he is not as good as they are.

The Fighter Who Never Stopped Adjusting

He has always gone back to the lab, looking for improvements and compromises. He has tried to reinvent the wheel again and again. But now the body is tired, the mind is exhausted, and the challenge is greater than ever.

So when someone asks, “What went wrong with Daniil Medvedev?” there is a long, detailed answer. Yet it should also be said that at his best, he was both one of the most entertaining personalities on tour and one of the most uniquely great players of his era.

Because when everything goes wrong, as it eventually did for Medvedev, people often forget the good. They forget that the highs ever existed.