What should we expect from Joao Fonseca in Melbourne?

It might sound harsh given his age, but for much of the 2025 season, Joao Fonseca arguably flattered to deceive. That is in no small part because his talent set expectations extraordinarily high, but having ended his 2024 campaign with victory at the Next Gen Finals, he did not quite kick on as expected in the early months of 2025. He did of course beat the inconsistent 9^th seed Andrey Rublev in his opening match at the Australian Open on his Grand Slam debut – no mean feat – but failed to back that up.

Lorenzo Sonego, the player who beat him in five sets in the second round at Melbourne Park, is a very fine player and there was no shame in losing that match for Fonseca. But it still felt like a missed opportunity for the Brazilian. That disappointment was perhaps highlighted by Sonego going onto reach the quarterfinals, beating Learner Tien – who Fonseca had gotten the better of months earlier at the Next Gen Finals – to reach the last eight.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee, but it’s also far from unthinkable that if Fonseca had won that match against Sonego, he would have been the man to reach the quarterfinals at the Australian Open in a breakthrough run on the biggest stage. Instead, his results at the Majors over the remainder of 2025 were solid with third-round runs at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and a second-round showing at the US Open. He also failed to go beyond the third round at any of the nine Masters events.

Fonseca had, in fairness, won his first career title at the ATP Buenos Aires Open in February beating Francisco Cerundolo (and a fiercely partisan crowd) in the final. But he came into the final weeks of the season having underachieved in 2025. That was until he found some form in October in Basel, storming through the field at the Swiss Indoors to win the title and dropping just two sets in the process. He couldn’t maintain that winning run in Paris, but it was nonetheless an important tonic.

The Brazilian then elected not to defend his title at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Jeddah. He cited an injury, but one suspects that he might have simply run out of steam after a taxing first season on the main tour. In his absence, Tien went one better than he did in 2024 and won the title, but Fonseca may well be grateful for having had the change to rest, recharge, and work on the tactical elements of his game ahead of 2026 season where expectations will once again be high.

He may need to adapt tactically, with former-US Open finalist Greg Rusedski rather uncharitably suggesting that Fonseca has been worked out. But Fonseca would probably do best not to introduce too much complexity into his game. He is at his best when he is playing matches on his own terms, trusting in his power from the back of the court – particularly on the forehand side – to hit through opponents. That doesn’t always work, but his fundamentals are good enough that it should work more often than not.

Talk of challenging Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz is clearly premature, particularly at the Australian Open where Sinner has a fantastic record. But the courts at Melbourne Park do typically reward clean ball-striking and there are not many who hit the ball more cleanly than Fonseca. He will also have the protection of a seeding, courtesy of his ATP Basel title. In theory, that should give him two winnable matches before he has to face one of the world’s best.

Setting expectations is not a precise art, whether internally or in a player’s camp. But Fonseca has never reached the second week at a Grand Slam which makes that a relatively obvious first target for 2026. If he can play his best tennis, or something close to it, and get some assistance from the draw, there is also no reason to think that it is not an achievable target for Fonseca in Melbourne in January.