What would represent success for Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2026?

For Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2025 was (by a distance) the most successful year of his career to date. But tennis is a relentless sport and achievements that aren’t built on tend to be eroded. The Canadian has firsthand experience of that, having previously broken into the top 10 over the course of the 2022 season, ending that year ranked 6^th in the world, only to find himself on the cusp of falling out of the top 30 by the end of the following year.

However, on the biggest stages, Auger-Aliassime still has work to do. He has reached two Masters finals since the start of 2024 – in Madrid and Paris – but has lost them both. Aside from those runs to the final, his record is indifferent with just three quarterfinal showings to his name over the last two years. He has also lost too early too often at the Majors, with his semifinal showing at the US Open this year the first time he had advanced beyond the fourth round since the 2022 Australian Open. In the interim, he lost in the first round seven times.

Clearly then, consistency under the spotlight is a problem for Auger-Aliassime, but aged just 25, it is one that he has plenty of time to solve. Whilst his record might look poor compared with the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, he is not alone in taking a while to find his feet at the Majors. Alexander Zverev has now reached three Grand Slam finals, but only reached his first semifinal at the 19^th attempt and, despite significant improvement, has remained vulnerable to early upsets.

Andrey Rublev has had a similarly up-and-down career of late and though he has reached 10 quarterfinals at the Majors and won 17 titles, including two Masters events, he has not yet made it to the last four at a Grand Slam and now seems to be going backwards.

Rublev’s countryman Daniil Medvedev has outperformed both him and Zverev, winning a Major and reaching world #1, but has also lost his way with his ranking dropping to 13^th in the world. One rather feels that, whilst he’s good enough to get back in the top 10, his Major winning days are now over. The less said about Stefanos Tsitsipas, wracked with injury and outside the top 30, and Auger-Aliassime’s compatriot Denis Shapovalov, briefly in the top 10 but now a long way off it, the better.

But the above players are probably the right yardsticks for Auger-Aliassime to measure himself against, rather than the duopoly that have effectively seized power at the top of the game. The Canadian has beaten both Alcaraz and Sinner in the past, but has lost his last five against Alcaraz and his last four against Sinner, winning just one set in the process. As it stands, and there is little reason to think that this will change next year, he is not a competitor to either.

That is not reason to despair for Auger-Aliassime, however. On the contrary, he is in good company in that respect given that no one on the tour seems to be able to hold a candle to the Italian or the Spaniard at the moment. Even at his very best, it is hard to see Auger-Aliassime beating either over the course of five sets. But whilst he may not be able to meaningfully raise his ceiling, there is plenty of scope to raise his floor and plenty of gains to realise by doing so.

Consistency is the key to success in tennis. More experience of the biggest stages and the matches that matter most will also be crucial if Auger-Aliassime is to realise his ambitions of eventually winning those matches and the biggest titles. That may be a long way off, but he is still only 25 and either fate or fortune might present him with a chance further down the line. To take advantage of that chance, incremental gains should be the order of the day in 2026.

Early defeats at the Slams have to be cut out and his improvement at the Masters improved. He is more than good enough to accomplish both over the course of the coming year. And if he does, we might just be having a different conversation about Felix Auger-Aliassime come 2027.