Who Will Finish at No. 1: Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner?

Today’s PIF ATP Rankings update saw Jannik Sinner return to World No. 1 after winning the Paris Masters. Sinner has been on a massive run lately, winning a couple of trophies, including Vienna and Paris, and the Six Kings Slam, where he bested Alcaraz in the final.

The last one didn’t give out any points, but the other two did, and that was enough for the Italian to make a return to World No. 1, once again sitting 250 points above the Spaniard. With just one ATP event left on the 2025 schedule for Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who will finish as the year-end No. 1?

Who Will Finish at No. 1?

ATP Rankings:

1. Jannik Sinner 11,500
2. Carlos Alcaraz 11,250

This amount, though, isn’t consequential for who will finish World No. 1 — the main prize — because the race determines that, and the situation in the race is a bit different right now. Alcaraz sits at the top of the ATP Race with 11,050 points compared to 10,000 points for Sinner.

ATP Race:

1. Carlos Alcaraz 11,050
2. Jannik Sinner 10,000

That means the ATP Finals will determine who finishes World No. 1 at the end of this year and secures that trophy. Right now, there is a pretty strong chance it’s going to be Alcaraz, because what Sinner would need to do is very hard (though not impossible).

To secure the year-end No. 1 ranking, Sinner would have to be perfect: he would need to win the ATP Finals and every match he plays there. It’s not impossible, but it’s somewhat unlikely because we’re talking about an event where the best of the best will be playing.

Let’s break down all scenarios to paint a much clearer picture.

Scenario 1: Sinner wins all of his matches

In this scenario, the Italian might still not end up as the year-end No. 1, because Alcaraz still controls his destiny. The Spaniard would end up as No. 1 if he wins all three of his round robin matches or if he wins two and makes the final. He can do it with one round robin win as well if he makes the final.

Scenario 2: Sinner loses one match but wins the trophy

In this scenario, Alcaraz has more of a margin of error. If Sinner drops a single match in Turin, Alcaraz would need to win just two round robin matches to ensure that he ends the year World No. 1.

Scenario 3: Sinner wins the trophy but loses two matches

In this case, Alcaraz needs to win only one match to finish the season as No. 1.

Overall, it’s a very favourable situation for Alcaraz because he doesn’t have to beat Sinner directly. He needs to fulfill one of the three scenarios above, and he’ll get it done.

However, it’s far from certain, given his up-and-down form of late and indoor hardcourts not being his preferred surface. It’s a much better surface for Sinner, who will enter Turin as the favourite to win, but even if he does, it might not be enough.