WTA Madrid Final Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff

If it’s anything like last year’s final, the fans at the WTA Madrid Open are in for a treat. But there will be a new champion in the Spanish capital after defending champion Iga Swiatek suffered a shock 1-6 1-6 defeat at the hands of Coco Gauff in the last four, with the American set to take on Aryna Sabalenka. But will Sabalenka, who lost in the final last year, go one better in 2025 or will Gauff win her first WTA 1000 clay court event?

WTA Madrid Final Prediction

Head-to-head: Gauff 5-4 Sabalenka

Gauff has rediscovered the form she showed during the United Cup, bouncing back from frustratingly early losses in Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami and Stuggart over the last fortnight at the WTA Madrid Open. Gauff has remained calm even when under pressure and clicked into gear in fine style in the semifinals. The relatively quick clay-court conditions in Madrid clearly suit Gauff’s game, particularly her backhand, with the 21-year-old able to lean in with her inside foot and transfer pace and power into it.

Moreover, her victory in Madrid marked her third straight win over Swiatek, banishing any remaining claims of a match-up issue with a comprehensive win on the Pole’s favoured surface. The victory continued a superb stretch for Gauff who, since losing her first set of the tournament to Dayana Yastremska without troubling the scorers, has won every set she has played. Quality opponents Belinda Bencic, Mirra Andreeva and Iga Swiatek have all been left helpless.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, has been similarly impressive, dropping just one set in beating Anna Blinkova, Elise Mertens, Peyton Stearns, Marta Kostyuk, and the in-form Elina Svitolina. That said, she has been pushed at times and had to dig deep to win two tiebreak sets against Kostyuk in the last eight.

In the nine previous times these two met, there have been fireworks. Whether it was Sabalenka’s 2024 Australian Open semifinal win or Gauff’s claiming her maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open, their match-ups have produced some excellent tennis. Yet, the latter is in irresistible form. Moreover, she has won the only ever meeting between the two on clay. Expect this trend to continue, with another classic Madrid final.

Prediction: Gauff in 3