WNBA News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

Stephen R. Sylvanie, Imagn Images

Can Aces Take Commanding 2-0 Lead Over Mercury In 2025 WNBA Finals? Plus, Other Top Bets

Originally posted on Last Word On Sports
By Daniel Benjamin | Last updated Oct 5, 2025 12:53 PM ET

The Las Vegas Aces took the first step to capture their third WNBA title with a 89-86 comeback victory over the Phoenix Mercury last night. Can the Aces take a commanding 2-0 series lead?

Can Aces Take Commanding 2-0 Lead Over Mercury In 2025 WNBA Finals? Plus, Other Top Bets

In a very competitive game, the Aces trailed 76-70 with 8:42 left in the quarter. But, the Aces outscored the Mercury 19-10 the rest of the way as coach Becky Hammons switched to a zone defense. Overall, the Mercury made just 6 of 18 shots from the field and 2 of 12 from the 3-point line in the final stanza. The Mercury entered the fourth shooting 52.1%, including 50% from 3.

“I was seeing them score too much against our man (defense),” Hammon said, explaining why she switched defenses. “I thought them getting the ball in the paint, whether it was off a pass or penetration, was really hurting us. It was putting us at a significant disadvantage on the back end with those 3s. So, just tried something different, so we didn’t give up the middle so easily. We were able to fan out a little better and find those shooters.”

As Phoenix couldn’t buy a bucket, A’ja Wilson was dominant over the last 12 minutes. Wilson scored 14 points, including in the fourth quarter, over this stretch while Dana Evans knocked down a trio of three pointers in the final stanza as the pair outscored the Mercury 19-16 in the frame.

Wilson finished with a 21-point,1o-rebound double-double while also adding five assists, one steal, and two blocks. Meanwhile, Evans had 21 points on 8 of 13 shooting, and Jewell Loyd contributed 18 points to help the Aces reserve outscore the Mercury bench 41-16. Evans was 5 of 6 from deep and recorded four steals, becoming the first player to post those stats in Finals history.

Takeaways From Game 1

As expected, Wilson is a nightmare matchup for the Mercury.
Similarly known. Alyssa Thomas is one of the top all-around players in the league, despite missing two key free throws down the stretch. Thomas finished with 15 points, on 7 of 10 shooting, 10 rebounds, and nine assists.
While the Aces’ bench got the better of the Mercury’s reserves in Game 1, both teams’ second units have been outstanding in the playoffs. Las Vegas’ bench averages the second most points in the playoffs at nearly 21 points and a +2.2 point differential. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s second unit averages 19.5 points and has a +3.1 point differential.
Phoenix continues to fall in love with the 3-point line, although the Mercury aren’t great from deep. The Mercury knocked down 14 of 36 threes in Game 1, their most during the 2025 playoffs. While the Mercury, who made 38.8% of their 3-point attempts — which is considerably higher than their playoff and season average — the 36 attempts accounted for 54.8% of their shots on the evening.
The Aces won the turnover battle 12-5, recording 22 points off the Mercury’s miscues.
The Aces also posted 21 fastbreak points compared to five for the Mercury. Additionally, the Aces turned their eight offensive boards into six second-chance points, while the Mercury picked up five points on their six offensive boards.
The Aces are 23-4 since Loyd has come off the bench.

Game Information/Prediction

Arena: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Money Line: Vegas -150, Phoenix +122

Spread: Aces -3.0

Over/Under: 164.5

Las Vegas Record: 36-17 overall, 6-3 playoffs

Aces Home Record: 22-6 overall, 5-1 playoffs

Phoenix Record: 32-20 overall, 5-3 playoffs

Mercury Road Record: 14-12 overall, 1-3 playoffs

Expect this to be another tight and intriguing matchup. While the Aces have won four of the five matchups against the Mercury, including three in a row, three of the contests have been decided by three or fewer points, and all but one have been within six points.

Wilson has shredded the Mercury’s defense. In the four games this year, Wilson has averaged 24.2 points, 14.2 rebounds (3.8 offensive), and 2.5 assists. While the Mercury owns the league’s best defense in the playoffs, Wilson has the advantage due to her ability to score in several ways-face-up drives, midrange face-ups, and step-back threes. She can use her length, size, and instincts to dominate the offensive glass.

If Mercury’s first-year coach, Nate Tibbetts, comes with a defensive scheme to limit Wilson’s scoring, she will find the open player. And the Aces, who are the top offensive team in the playoffs with a 109 rating, do have plenty of offensive firepower. Jackie Young is the Aces’ second option, but Chelsea Gray, Loyd, and Evans have had big games against the Mercury.

Phoenix shot 47% from the field and 39% from the 3-point line on Friday. But don’t expect that efficiency to continue, especially from beyond the arc. The Mercury are shooting under 42% from the field and 33% from deep. In addition, Hammons said her defense will be better in Game 2.

Becky Hammon’s Make Another Prediction

Before Game 1, according to Ben Pickman of The Athletic, Hammon predicted the Aces’ depth could be a potential separator between the opponents. “I think we have the best overall bench that we’ve had since I’ve been here.”

Obviously, she was right on the money there with Las Vegas’ bench being the decisive difference in Game 1. So, Pickman would’ve been remiss not to ask Hammon if she had a prediction for Game 2.

“I have a crystal ball at home,” Hammon said to A’ja Wilson next to her, “I predict our defense will be better.”

Prediction: Aces 87-84

Best Bet: Aces on the money line (-150)

The Aces have not lost with Wilson in the lineup this year against the Mercury.

Other Bets: Lean Over 164.5 Points

The Aces are averaging a playoff-high 87.2 points. The Aces have been more effective offensively at home throughout the season, averaging 89 points during the postseason. Additionally, the Aces have averaged 89 points and the Mercury 88 in Game 2.