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Indiana Fever Suffer Decline in ESPN’s Computer Model

Originally posted on Athlon Sports
By Rowan Fisher-Shotton | Last updated Sep 24, 2025 1:38 PM ET

The Indiana Fever opened the WNBA semifinals by surprising the Las Vegas Aces 89–73 in Game 1, but dropped Game 2, 90–68, in Las Vegas on Tuesday, leaving the series tied 1-1 before Game 3 in Indianapolis on Friday.

ESPN’s pre-Game‑2 Power Index heavily favored the Fever to reach the WNBA Finals (62.5% to reach, 11.0% to win) but was updated after the Aces’ Game‑2 win to show Indiana’s finals probability falling to 45.8% and its championship odds steady at roughly 11.2%.

Both the Minnesota Lynx (78.6% to reach, 64% to win) and the Aces (54.2% to reach, 18.1% to win) now have better chances of winning the title.

The Fever reached the semifinals as the No. 6 seed after upsetting the No. 3 Atlanta Dream in the opening round, an achievement that came despite a laundry list of season‑ending injuries.

This includes losses to franchise star Caitlin Clark (right groin) as well as Sophie Cunningham (MCL), Aari McDonald (foot), Sydney Colson (ACL) and Chloe Bibby (knee), leading some fans to refer to the group as the "Build-A-Bear Fever team."

All of these changes have forced head coach Stephanie White to rely on replacements, hardship additions and heavy minutes from veterans like Kelsey Mitchell, Natasha Howard, Lexie Hull and Aliyah Boston.

Despite this, Indiana’s depth and resilience resulted in a 24–20 regular season finish and a road Game‑1 upset in Vegas, fueled by Mitchell’s 34‑point outburst.

Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) projects as a series‑defining tilt. The victor will be just one win away from the WNBA Finals.

ESPN BET favors the Aces (-175), listing them as 4.5-point favorites with a 162.5-point over/under.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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