Is WNBA facing a competitive balance problem?

The WNBA is riding a wave of momentum. With plans to grow from 13 to 18 teams by 2030 and surging interest through media deals, merchandise sales and fan engagement, the league’s future looks promising. 

WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert called the expansion a “powerful reflection” of the league’s growth, talent depth and rising demand for women’s basketball.

But beneath the celebration, a question remains that no one seems to be asking: Is the WNBA facing a competitive balance problem?

Competitive balance — the idea that teams are relatively even and games are close — is critical to any league’s success. It fuels fan excitement, unpredictability and sustained interest. For the WNBA, where every game plays a role in shaping perceptions of growth and legitimacy, balance is vital. But recent post-All-Star break performances suggest an emerging issue.

Since the All-Star Game on July 19, only three of the league’s 24 games have been decided by five points or fewer. That’s less than 13 percent. Even more striking is the average margin of victory: 16 points. In basketball terms, that’s a blowout — night after night.

The post-break stretch is usually a time for thrilling games and tight playoff races. Instead, we’ve seen lopsided contests and few nail-biters. This raises real concerns about whether the WNBA’s on-court product is keeping pace with its branding and growth goals.

Rapid expansion reflects optimism and ambition, but it also risks spreading talent too thin. While the WNBA has a solid foundation of elite players, increasing the number of teams demands a deeper bench of high-level talent. Without it, we risk more games lacking competitiveness, which could impact viewership, ticket sales and long-term fan engagement.

To stay on course, the WNBA needs more than expansion announcements and branding victories. It must invest deeply in talent development — scouting, youth pipelines, international recruitment and training programs — to ensure new teams are not just filling rosters but fielding contenders. Expansion must be matched by an equal focus on building a talent base that can keep the product exciting.

Marketing has done wonders for the WNBA. But if the actual games don’t match the hype, that momentum risks stalling. The league must keep a close eye on competitiveness because competitive balance isn’t just a game-day issue. It’s a cornerstone of lasting success.