Mercury vs Liberty Prediction, Odds, Pick for Friday, July 25

The Phoenix Mercury (15-8) and New York Liberty (16-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ION.

The Liberty are favored by -6.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 171.5 (-108o / -112u). The Libery are a -270 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +220 to pull off the upset.

Let’s get into my Mercury vs. Liberty prediction and WNBA picks.

Mercury vs. Liberty Odds, Pick

• Mercury vs. Liberty Spread: Mercury +6.5 (-115), Liberty -6.5 (-105)
• Mercury vs. Liberty Over/Under: 171.5 (-108o/ -112u)
• Mercury vs. Liberty Moneyline: Mercury +220, Liberty -270
• Mercury vs. Liberty Best Bets: Alyssa Thomas Under 23.5 Points + Assists and Liberty -6.5

The Mercury face off against the Liberty on Friday night in a matchup between two of the league’s best teams. This matchup has important implications for the standings with the Liberty sitting two losses ahead of the Mercury.

The Mercury have won both games this season, one where the Liberty were without Jonquel Jones completely and the other where she got hurt during the game. The Liberty have been a totally different team with Jonquel Jones, especially on the defensive side of the ball where their Defensive Rating improves by a whopping 16 points per 100 possessions, per pbp stats. On the flip side, the offense actually drops by about 8 points per 100.

This matchup is difficult for both teams, especially with both teams nearly at full health (Nyara Sabally is out for NY). Given that, and the implications of tonight’s game for the standings it is tough to get away from New York. They’ve still cruised to a +10.1 Net Rating on the season despite missing Jonquel for some time and the Mercury are a +4.2 team.

Jonquel is particularly important here with Alyssa Thomas putting up MVP numbers this season. With Jonquel’s defensive chops and the ability to stack the interior with her and Stewie, this is a much better spot for New York.

I’m looking at Alyssa Thomas under 23.5 Points + Assists (-125 ESPN) –  a number she’s missed in 4 straight with a healthy Jonquel and the Liberty -6.5 for this contest in a bounce back spot for a healthy New York team.

Best Bets: Alyssa Thomas Under 23.5 Points + Assists and Liberty -6.5