WNBA 3-point contest, skills challenge odds, best bets: 3 picks for WNBA All-Star Friday Night

WNBA 3-Point Contest Odds

Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win is fair implied probability with the vigorish removed. The competition will have a first round where the top two scorers advance to the final round.

WNBA 3-Point Contest Picks (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Kayla McBride

To Win 3-Point Contest (+140)

By Michael Fiddle

The first thing that stuck out to me when evaluating the participants was that some of the elite guard shooters weren't in the contest. It's dominated by wings and bigs, with one guard in Allisha Gray competiting.

In these competitions, we have to prioritize reps, form and movement shooting, but also stamina is a sneaky element as well. It's akin to baseball players going 30 swings in a minute in a home run derby.

With only one guard in the field, I wasn't hesitant to shy away from picking a forward. My choice is Kayla McBride, which is a bit obvious because she has the shortest odds in the field.

However, her three point shooting form is elite, her efficiency is through the roof this season (she's emphasized the word efficiency in interviews) and recently, she's had a huge usage rate with Napheesa Collier out for the Lynx.

McBride has been getting tons of reps and is often taking quick shots while operating off movement. Her knack to knock them down is unbelievable.

The market has about a 15% hold, which is 3x betting into a game spread or total, so edges need to feel stronger to make bets here.

Despite really liking the candidate against the field, I advise a small wager because it's a difficult market to beat regularly, so our approach even in a one off shouldn't change.

Pick: Kayla McBride to Win 3-Point Contest (+140)

Kayla McBride

To Win 3-Point Contest (+140)

By Bryan Fonseca

McBride hasn't won the 3-point contest, but she's a deserved favorite this time around. She's competed in this twice — in 2018 and 2019 — and is the best catch-and-shoot threat in this field.

In these battles, you'd prefer backing someone who can catch-and-shoot or is a movement shooter (pardon the hipster term) who peels off screens and is used to being in position to shoot as opposed to constantly creating off the dribble.

Allie Quigley won this four times, for example. Ionescu won it last year, though she's adept at both and is an elite shooter.

McBride is the favorite, but I have no problem betting her at this number.

Pick: Kayla McBride to Win 3-Point Contest (+140)

WNBA Skills Challenge Odds

Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win is fair implied probability with the vigorish removed.

WNBA Skills Challenge Picks (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Erica Wheeler

To Win Skills Competition (+300)

By Michael Fiddle

The skills competition is one of my favorite events to handicap in basketball because there's an actual trick to use here. This competition prioritizes speed, dribbling, passing and 3-point shooting, so you want a ball dominant player and usually a guard.

While Brittney Griner is one of the league's best and most skilled players, she isn't suited for a strong showing in this event.

Marina Mabrey is a forward who often plays off-ball with the ability to shoot and play physical. She's in the 3-point contest as well, but her practice time and skill type isn't great for this either.

Once we narrow down the field to a few target candidates, the trick is to wait until you know the order of the contestants and cancel out the first person to go. The first player sets a target time where every contestant after is trying to beat, so they're the "hunted."

My preference is Erica Wheeler (+300), who plays for the incredibly fast-paced Indiana Fever. However, if she goes first, I would prefer to grab Allisha Gray.

Pick: Erica Wheeler to Win Skills Competition (+300)