College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 12

With Week 12 of the 2024 college football season in the books, it’s time to project how the new 12-team playoff will look by December. After 12 weeks of the season, projections and predictions on how the bracket could look in December have changed significantly from August. Additionally, with several big-time matchups still to come in November and conference championships in December, expect this projection to change many times before the final version is unveiled on Dec. 8.

After another Saturday of high-profile games and a few upsets, the projected playoff field looks different than last week's edition. Oregon remains No. 1, and Texas remains No. 2 as the projected SEC champion. Miami and Colorado round out the highest-rated projected conference champions, with Boise State in control of the fifth guaranteed spot as the top team in the Group of 5 leagues. Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Alabama, and Ole Miss rank as the top at-large selections, with Georgia joining Indiana as the last teams in. Tennessee is the first team out of the projected 12-team field this week.

With three full weeks of action and conference championship games still to come, these predictions and projections will look significantly different by the end of November. Week 13 features several games that will shape this projection next week, including BYU-Arizona State, Colorado-Kansas, Army-Notre Dame, Oklahoma-Alabama, Ole Miss-Florida, and Indiana-Ohio State. Penn State also has a tough road trip to play Minnesota, and Texas A&M travels to Auburn.

Although the season is 12 weeks old, the impact of every game isn't limited to just the top four. Instead, each contest takes on an increased role due to eight additional spots in the playoff, as well as seeding, and the automatic bids for conference champions.

As a refresher: 12 teams — the five highest-rated conference champions and seven highest-ranked at-large selections by the selection committee — will receive berths to the College Football Playoff. The top four teams receive a bye, with the first-round games slated to be played at the home sites of the higher seed. Beginning with the quarterfinals, all games through the national championship will be played at bowl or neutral sites.

With Week 12 completed, Athlon Sports projects the CFP field for 2024:

College Football Playoff 12-Team Preseason Projections for 2024

The Projected Field for 2024-25

Ranking All 134 College Football Teams for 2024

1. Oregon (Projected Big Ten Champion)
2. Texas (Projected SEC Champion)
3. Miami (Projected ACC Champion)
4. Colorado (Projected Big 12 Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Indiana
12. Boise State (Projected Highest G5 Champion)

Bubble Watch After Week 12

Tennessee (8-2)
Texas A&M (8-2)
BYU (9-1)
SMU (9-1)
Clemson (8-2)
Iowa State (8-2)
South Carolina (7-3)
Arizona State (8-2)

G5 Playoff Contenders

Projected Conference Champions: Tulane, Boise State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana, and Miami (Ohio)

Other G5 Teams in the Mix: Army, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, Liberty, James Madison, Texas State, Georgia Southern, Marshall, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Toledo, Ohio, Colorado State, and UNLV.

College Football Playoff First Round

First-round games will be placed on campus sites of highest seed. Matchups will take place from Dec. 20-21.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Georgia
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Second-round games will be played at bowl sites and will take place from Dec. 31-Jan. 1.

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31)
Projection: No. 4 Colorado vs. No. 5 Ohio State

Peach Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Penn State

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 10 Georgia

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Semifinal games will be played at bowl sites. Matchups are scheduled for Jan. 9-10.

Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Projection: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 6 Penn State

Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)
Projection: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State

National Championship

Jan. 20, 2025 in Atlanta, Ga.

Projection: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 10 Georgia

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.