Match Point: Jon Moxley vs. Swerve Strickland (AEW Dynasty)

The outcome of Jon Moxley vs. Swerve Strickland may define the rest of AEW’s 2025.

Match Point is an ongoing series at Last Word on Pro Wrestling, where we look at intriguing matchups. They may be dream matches, first-time matchups, or hotly anticipated rematches. In this edition, James Staynings will focus on AEW Dynasty main event. He’ll consider how this match is about more than the world championship.

More Than the Match Itself

On paper and in many fans’ minds, Jon Moxley’s impending clash with Swerve Strickland should hit the high standards expected of an AEW World Championship match. Stepping outside of kayfabe, Moxley has been a huge fan of Strickland since his Killshot days in Lucha Underground.

In some ways, kindred spirits, their paired intensity, and violent-oriented approaches offer a unique physical contest. Moxley is willing to be pierced with nails for his art.

Strickland’s form, as a wrestler and character, remains phenomenal in 2025. Strickland heads into Dynasty, coming full circle. The character arc is reflective of rival Hangman Adam Page’s struggle with imposter syndrome that led the cowboy to the world championship.

Strickland has rebounded from back-to-back PPV losses to the number one contender as the calculating, near-psychopathic bastard that fans love. But this is about more than a match. It’s about the wider transformation of AEW.

It’s about fans wanting to see the main event scene warm up. Catching fire like it is elsewhere on the card.

Look back at my opening line. The majority of Moxley’s Death Rider run has been dislocated from AEW’s reputation for PPVs delivering MOTY candidates. For some, it’s a letdown due to its lack of a story and clear character dimensions. The main event has stagnated while the rest of the card evolves.

For some, this match is about correcting wrongs, cutting bait, or completing change. Something The Death Riders were meant to herald.

Mission Accomplished?

When The Death Riders took control of the AEW World Championship, the mission statement was simple: make everyone in the company step up. Challenging the locker room to show out and prove their capabilities, put aside egos, and unify to fight and reinvigorate AEW fictionalised real perspectives.

This was not the first time AEW took this approach. It was the second time they tried this in 2024. In some ways, it is a polar opposite version of The Elite’s Corporate turn yet, at the same time, oddly similar.

Opposite sides of the spectrum bend the line into a circle, placing them back-to-back. Both share more similarities than some might like to acknowledge.

In many respects, The Death Riders storyline has not satisfied fans online. However, AEW in 2025 has seen a tremendous shift in creative that’s occurred underneath The Death Riders storyline.

Ratings and reports of PPV buys have been stable and/or seen slight improvements over time. Plus, there have been positive shifts in attendance figures and online optimism. But is this because of or despite the Death Riders storyline?

When discussing 5 ways AEW creative has turned the corner, many changes have occurred around The Death Riders rather than because of them. Sometimes, The Death Riders have had their own character development-draining vortex surrounding them, like the one associated with Chris Jericho. When considering AEW’s New Year resolutions, I brought up how challenging for the world championship could have left Hangman Page and Orange Cassidy as caricatures if care was not subsequently taken.

Ironically, improvements have happened around The Death Riders rather than because of them. Mission (indirectly) accomplished. Now, many want a swerve.

Swerve Strickland vs. Jon Moxley Rebuilding the House

The contrasting journeys of Moxley and Strickland since All Out demonstrates the good and bad of AEW’s booking strategies beyond the problems of 2024. Both were subjects of my article on the Shakespearean-like splendour of violence in AEW.

Moxley, the victimizer, metaphorically murdered Bryan Danielson. Strickland, the victim, was drugged and knocked unconscious with a steel chair.

Strickland displayed ruthlessness and a desire to make feuds personal in a way more akin to Moxley’s mentor, William Regal, than Moxley himself. We, as fans, can imagine Moxley going to such cruel lengths reactively if he was spurned. Not striking first with such cruelty.

After all, Moxley, in his mind, is one of the good guys. Yet, in 2024, the people chose Strickland. Moxley was loved but, as a character, remained largely the same.

Post-All Out, Strickland changed and went somewhere new. Rock bottom where Strickland was forced to rebuild himself and his house. It was personal.

As fans, we saw progression, harking back to one of the core aspects of AEW’s “feeling”: wrestlers’ journeys feeling real. Moxley did something old and worn, becoming for a third-time AEW’s saviour and transitional leader.

Diminishing returns caught up with the greatest modern transitional champion, and the routine became old hat. The strings and intentions were visible; the creative machinery is on display. Artificial.

In defeat, Strickland, against supposed conventional knowledge, gained. Character growth made victories sweeter. Revisiting Strickland’s hubris of making things too personal with opponents saw Strickland’s strength turned into weakness.

Differently, Moxley’s problem, being a tough guy unable to find a worthy opponent to match him, is all about strength. Even though Moxley isn’t playing by the rules, his heel persona has lacked nuance.

Part hard-man, part false prophet, part cat, Moxley’s been playing a caricature. Or, as Swerve said, a character.

Bait

Swerve Strickland is the people’s choice beyond the wider coincidences. The timing feels right because Strickland remains undeniable.

In 2024, Strickland represented a new bold face to lead AEW. Strickland offered then and now familiarity with a hybrid in-ring style synonymous with AEW, but also unpredictability as a tweener/anti-hero. Overcoming the post-chase blues by staying the course, with a stoic and undeterred presence during a reign that faced criticism and doubt, Strickland somewhat personified a version of AEW many fans wanted.

One that focuses on itself rather than outside voices and forces. That mentality and desire remains the same now.

Some fans have wanted a new world champion since World’s End when each challenger seemed to have more interesting character arcs to explore than Mox. Strickland, more than any other challenger, has felt the most likely to defeat Moxley. Changing the foreshadowed plan of Darby Allin defeating Moxley doesn’t require the championship.

Or is this story just bait?

A way to add more “heat” onto Moxley if he retains. Make fans want the title change even more. Or will AEW replace desire with another?

Hangman Adam Page has promised Strickland will never be the AEW World Champion again. If Page costs Strickland, a potential fifth singles match in their historic feud is a consolation prize many would accept.

Regardless of the outcome, AEW is so close to a new creative zenith because the company has options. If AEW extends Moxley’s reign until All In and sticks with the assumed plan, there are reasons to be emotionally invested in plenty of wrestlers and storylines beyond AEW being where the best wrestle. The house is almost restored.