UTEP vs Sam Houston Prediction: Who Will Get Their First FBS Win?

It's 1-5 with only a win over UT Martin, but almost every game has been tight, the defense is doing fine, and now it has to come up with something solid in a run of three road games in four dates.

At least it has a win.

Sam Houston lost head coach KC Keeler to Temple, and it was supposed to be rebuilding, but it was expected to start the season 0-6.

This needs to be it. The Bearkats lost a tough 29-27 game to Jacksonville State last week, but with three of the next four games on the road, the pressure is on to get a W.

How To Watch UTEP vs Sam Houston

Wednesday, October 15, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Location: Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX

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Why UTEP Will Win

Sam Houston is the worst team in the nation on third downs, and it's not even close.

Kent State, the Gold Standard for inept offenses over the last few seasons, converts 26% of its third down tries. Sam Houston is moving the chains just 18% of the time. 

The defense is a little better. Only three teams are worse, and UAB and UCLA fired their head coaches before the middle of the season.

For all of UTEP's problems, the defense is shockingly amazing at getting off the field. The pass rush is a killer, the Bearkats aren't doing anything in pass protection, and ...

Why Sam Houston Will Win

UTEP can't get out ot its own way.

The defense might be strong enough to put the team in a position to win, but the offense keeps screwing it up. 

No one in America has thrown more interceptions. UTEP has given up 12 picks, and for all the problems and issues, it's not bad at forcing interceptions.

The UTEP offense struggles with the ground game, the passing attack is under 50% completion rate over the last three games, and it's averaging just 14 points per game against FBS teams.

Can the Miners or Bearkats Score?

Does the home field advantage matter for Sam Houston? 

It wasn't able to hold up in the final seconds of last week's tough walk-off loss to Jacksonville State, and it'll have problems with a UTEP defense that will keep the score low. 

The Sam Houston defense will once again let the team down late.

UTEP vs Sam Houston Prediction, Betting Lines

UTEP 26, Sam Houston 20
Line: UTEP -2.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 2

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