Joe Joyce vs Filip Hrgovic: Who Wins?

Amateur Rivals And Other Similarities

Perhaps it was inevitable that two boxers who were around in the same era during their amateur careers would clash as professionals. Saturday’s fight will see them share the ring for the first time since February 2013. Back then, the two amateurs met in the World Series of Boxing, with Joyce taking a split-decision victory over the five-round contest.

Both men boxed for their respective nations at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. Competing in the super heavyweight division, Joyce took home a silver medal while Hrgovic won bronze, although they didn’t face one another in the competition. With the Olympics out of the way, both boxers began their professional campaigns in 2017: Joyce in October and Hrgovic just one month earlier in September of that year.

Now, they will meet without vests or head guards. Joyce was originally scheduled to face countryman Dillian Whyte on Saturday, but he suffered a hand injury. Hrgovic was drafted in as a replacement last month. Announcing Hrgovic as a replacement, promoter Frank Warren said, “It’s a tough fight for both of them.”

The veteran dealmaker continued: “It’s exactly the same fight Joe had against Dillian. The winner goes on, and the loser is going to have to think about what he does.” The two men stand 6’6” and box out of the orthodox stance, so with that being equal, it could come down to who has the most desire on the night.

Can Joe Joyce Bring Back “The Juggernaut?”

Up until he lost to Zhang in April 2023, Joyce was considered a genuine threat to everyone at heavyweight. That was because he lived up to his nickname. Basically, he came forward relentlessly behind a strong jab and seemed to possess an unlimited supply of energy despite generally weighing between 270 and 280 pounds and a granite chin. Despite being slow of foot and not really moving his head to avoid punches, Joyce was unbeaten and on a five-fight KO streak before Zhang halted his momentum. Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker were among Joyce’s victims during this stage of his campaign.

Back-to-back defeats to Zhang, in which he endured heavy punishment, may have eroded Joyce’s punch resistance. Plenty of boxing observers certainly think so. Despite this, Joyce only boxes one way, and his policy of walking forward while taking some to land some is entertaining for viewers but might not be the best for his long-term health.

Joyce can beat Hrgovic by presenting the Croatian with a juggernaut that has had its engine tuned down just a bit. That is to say that from time to time, Joyce should consider the advantages of just taking a breather and not walking forward into potential fire from his opponent. Operating at 75% of his normal offensive output could be enough for Joyce to win on Saturday.

Can Hrgovic Unleash “El Animal”?

Joyce requiring less offensive output to win basically hinges on how much fire and desire Hrgovic brings to Saturday’s contest. On occasion, Hrgovic has been guilty of being unwilling to let his hands go, especially when his opponent has shown enthusiasm for doing exactly that. He’s a talented boxer, but he will need to up his work rate against Joyce in order for his talents to light up the ring.

Hrgovic, who usually weighs between 240 and 250 pounds, is the sharper mover of the two. Speed of punch delivery also favors Hrgovic here, so landing and moving should be the staple of his game plan.

If Hrgovic has the hunger to win on Saturday, then he needs to match Joyce’s punch output. Along with gaining himself a foothold in the fight, throwing plenty will also put the brakes on what Joyce is trying to do. Getting this basic correct could set the tone for Hrgovic to take advantage of the perceived lesser punch resistance of Joyce as the bout gets into its second half.

Will Hrgovic be up for such a battle though?

Joe Joyce vs. Filip Hrgovic Fight Prediction

In a fight where it seems like the boxer who is able to cover his flaws better will win, a case can be made for either man winning on the cards or closing the show early. Having considered these factors, the prediction here is Joyce will do enough to grind out a points victory. It probably won’t be pretty, but I don’t think Hrgovic has the heart to really dig down and do what’s required for him to win this fight.

Joyce, even operating as a lower capacity ‘Juggernaut,’ will keep his career going by taming ‘El Animal’ on Saturday night.

Joe Joyce vs. Filip Hrgovic Betting Odds

Per DraftKings SportsBook, Filip Hrgovic is the favorite at -370, and Joe Joyce is the underdog at +275.

Joe Joyce: TKO/KO +475; Decision +800

Draw: +1800

Filip Hrgovic: TKO/KO -125; Decision +260