Heavyweight boxing returns to the O2 Arena in London, U.K., on Saturday night as Joseph Parker is set to face the undefeated Fabio Wardley in a scheduled 12-round fight live on DAZN PPV. With so much on the line for both men, who will come out victorious, and how will they do it?
The heavyweight division has seen its ups and downs, but the last 5-10 years have been the best it’s been in a while. One of the reasons for that is the 33-year-old Parker (36-3, 24 KOs) from South Auckland, New Zealand. After beating Andy Ruiz in 2016 for the vacant WBO crown, things were on the up and up for Parker. He would defend it twice before losing it to Anthony Joshua in 2018. After that, he would go 12-2 with huge wins over Deontay Wilder, Zhilei Zhang, Martin Bakole, Derek Chisora, and others. Parker ’s last loss was to Joe Joyce in 2022, a fight in which he did not look his best, and the first under Andy Lee. After the Joyce fight, the two got on the same page, and Parker hasn’t looked back. Now he has a younger, undefeated opponent in Wardley, whom Parker must beat to get a shot at the undisputed champion Oleksandr Usyk.
For Parker, he must establish that left jab early in the fight like he did against Bakole. Parker changed the levels of his jab, which is what he has to do against Wardley, so that Wardley is always thinking. He must also work the body early and slow down Wardley’s explosiveness. Parker needs to keep the fight outside of mid-range so that he forces Wardley to lunge a bit with his punches so that he can land the big overhand right as he comes in. If Parker can use his experience to break down Wardley and confuse him mentally, then he should be able to stop Wardley late in the fight.
It’s not hard to get behind the 30-year-old Wardley (19-0-1, 18 KOs) from Suffolk, U.K., as he brings the action every time he steps into the ring, even if it comes with a risk. He’s been brought up slowly, and when he faced Frazer Clarke in March 2024, he got a hard lesson in boxing and came away with a split draw in a fight that he could have lost. He would redeem himself seven months later in the rematch with Clarke, stopping him in the first round. After looking sensational, he again didn’t look as good against Justis Huni in June until he scored a much-needed tenth-round knockout. Parker is no Huni and won’t make the mistake of letting his guard down, so Wardley will have to be at his very best if he wants to leave the O2 Arena with a victory.
How does Wardley beat Parker? He can’t be afraid to pressure him early and work his way inside. Wardley can’t just walk through the front door, as he has to jab his way in, so the opportunities for him to land those flashy combinations can present themselves. Wardley has to pace himself and cut the ring off as Parker will try to use every bit of it to gas out the younger Wardley. He also has to work the body early, as Wardley was headhunting too much in the Huni fight. I don’t see Wardley knocking out Parker but he could score a narrow decision victory if he stays disciplined in his game plan and comes in the best condition he’s ever been in.
Parker will take Wardley into deep waters, and that’s when he will drown him. Parker’s early attack will set up for a late TKO victory.
Per DraftKings SportsBook, Joseph Parker is the favorite at -400, and Fabio Wardley is the underdog at +300.
Joseph Parker: TKO/KO -110; Decision +210
Draw: +1800
Fabio Wardley: TKO/KO +450; Decision +1100
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