Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev Preview, Prediction & Betting Odds

The moment ignited predictable chatter on social media, with skeptics quick to question his aura of invincibility. Yet history offers perspective. Many of boxing’s most celebrated champions—Felix Trinidad, Juan Manuel Márquez, even Sergio Martínez—suffered knockdowns of their own, only to rise, regroup, and author some of the most thrilling victories of their careers. Inoue’s response placed him firmly in that tradition: not proof of weakness, but confirmation of greatness.

In his most recent outing on May 4, Inoue dispatched Ramon Cardenas by eighth-round TKO—but not before enduring another moment of peril. A massive left hook from Cardenas floored him in the second round, forcing Inoue to regroup once more. As he has so often, the champion steadied himself, gradually wore his opponent down, dropped Cardenas in the seventh, and closed the show in the eighth. Those dramatics came on the heels of knockout victories over former titleholder T.J. Doheny and Ye Joon Kim, further padding an already formidable résumé.

The concern, however, is that Akhmadaliev represents a far stiffer test than either Doheny or Kim. It is little wonder, then, that some observers lean toward Akhmadaliev, pointing to Inoue’s recent brushes with vulnerability as evidence that the tide could turn. Akhmadaliev enters with confidence of his own, fresh off an eighth-round stoppage of Mexican veteran Luis Castillo on May 30 in Guadalajara.

Akhmadaliev (14-1, 11 KOs), 30, once stood atop the super bantamweight division. In just his eighth professional bout, he captured the WBA and IBF titles with a split-decision victory over Daniel Roman, and he went on to make three successful defenses. But in April 2023, he suffered a crushing setback: a split-decision defeat to Marlon Tapales. In a span of 36 minutes, the 30-year-old southpaw lost his belts, his unbeaten record, and his long-awaited chance to face Inoue. Tapales advanced to challenge Inoue for the undisputed crown, only to be stopped in the 10th round.

For Akhmadaliev, the result stung. He believed he had done enough to beat Tapales, and watching his former foe falter against Inoue only deepened the conviction that the outcome would have been different had he been the one in the opposite corner.

Now MJ finally has his chance to prove who’s the best in the world.

This is a dangerous fight for both men. The 32-year-old Inoue (30-0, 27 KOs) brings superior fundamentals along with a decisive edge in speed, power, and precision. Yet as history shows, lapses in his defense have left openings for elite opponents. Nonito Donaire famously broke Inoue’s right orbital bone in their 2019 bantamweight unification bout in Japan, though he was dropped late and lost by unanimous decision. Three years later, Inoue left no doubt in the rematch, dispatching Donaire inside two rounds.

Akhmadaliev, with his southpaw stance and sharp angles, poses his own threats. He has proven resilient in grueling fights, but Inoue presents a far more intricate challenge than he has ever encountered. This is no routine mismatch—the suspense lies in whether MJ can exploit early opportunities before the tide turns. If he cannot hurt Inoue in those opening rounds, the momentum becomes a ticking clock.

Inoue may not be flawless, but he is the sport’s premier finisher. Expect him to break Akhmadaliev down systematically, targeting the body, and secure a stoppage in the eighth round to retain his undisputed 122-pound crown.

NAOYA INOUE VS. MURODJON AKHMADALIEV PREDICTION

Naoya Inoue TKO victory  in the eighth round over Murodjon Akhmadaliev.

NAOYA INOUE VS. MURODJON AKHMADALIEV BETTING ODDS

Per DraftKings SportsBook , Naoya Inoue is the favorite at -1000, and Murodjon Akhmadaliev is the underdog at +600.

Naoya Inoue: TKO/KO -260; Decision +320

Draw: +2000

Murodjon Akhmadaliev: TKO/KO +1100; Decision +1400