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Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Erickson Lubin: Who Wins?

Originally posted on Fights Around The World
By Abraham Gonzalez | Last updated Nov 5, 2025 5:43 PM ET

It’s fight week for interim WBC junior middleweight champion Vergil Ortiz Jr., who will defend his title against Erickson Lubin at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX, live on DAZN. As we get closer to this intriguing matchup, let’s examine how these two fighters compare and who will emerge victorious at the end of the night.

THE TIME IS NOW FOR VERGIL ORTIZ JR

There is no denying that the 27-year-old Ortiz (23-0, 21 KOs) from Dallas, TX, is prepared for this fight. Although he has faced top-quality opponents, he has yet to win a full world title. That opportunity may come in 2026, but Ortiz must first get past Lubin to set himself up for a bigger fight. Ortiz has been relatively busy over the last few years when he wasn’t battling physical ailments, so ring rust shouldn’t be a factor in Saturday’s main event. Golden Boy has always believed that Ortiz was their next big star after Ryan Garcia, and winning this Lubin fight impressively can put him on a path to stardom.

So how does Ortiz beat Lubin? Ortiz needs to establish his body attack early. It might not pay off in the first half of the fight, but it will in the second, as it will limit Lubin’s movement and angles. Ortiz also needs to be patient and counterpunch at times, especially since Lubin tends to drop his left hand when he jabs or moves inside. This opens up the opportunity for an overhand right, which Ortiz delivers with power. There may be some knockdowns in this fight, but in the end, it will go to the scorecards.

ERICKSON LUBIN’S LAST STAND?

Lubin’s career (27-2, 19 KOs) has been quite interesting. He was a highly touted prospect after turning pro in 2013. Four years later, he fought Jermell Charlo for the WBC junior middleweight title and was knocked out in the first round. In hindsight, he probably needed more experience, but no one can blame him for taking a chance and daring to be great. He bounced back to win six straight fights before losing to Sebastian Fundora in April 2022, which many considered the Fight of the Year.

In the next 43 months, Lubin fought only three times, with one of those fights being an upset victory over Jesus Ramos Jr. in September 2023. Now Lubin has another chance to score another big upset Saturday, which could position him for a world title shot.

How does an experienced but battle-worn Lubin beat Ortiz? Movement and establishing distance right from the start should be at the top of Lubin’s game plan. After that, he needs to put together some quick combinations that will earn Ortiz’s respect and make him hesitate with his attack. Lubin also has to find a way to keep Ortiz on the back foot so he has less leverage on his shots. If Lubin can do this throughout the fight, he could secure a decision victory but will need to do so convincingly, especially since the fight is in Ortiz’s hometown.

VERGIL ORTIZ JR VS ERICKSON LUBIN PREDICTION

Although this has all the makings of a great fight, Ortiz is on the rise and Lubin has been in too many tough fights. Ortiz may not be successful early on, but once the second half begins, that’s when you’ll see him take over and win by split decision.