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Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs Israil Madrimov: Who Wins?

Originally posted on Fights Around The World
By Ryan O'Hara | Last updated Feb 21, 2025 3:53 PM ET

A true 50-50 fight dawns upon The Last Crescendo.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. and Israil Madrimov will square off for Ortiz Jr.’s interim WBC junior middleweight title on Saturday at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in support of the undisputed light heavyweight world championship rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol. Ortiz (22-0, 21 KOs) won the belt when he recovered from two knockdowns to defeat Serhii Bohachuk by majority decision for the most significant victory of his career to date.

Madrimov (10-1-1, 7 KOs) is fighting for the first time since suffering the first professional loss of his career, which was a close unanimous decision defeat in a WBA 154-pound title defense against four-division world champion Terence Crawford on August 3. He won the belt five months prior with a fifth-round TKO victory over Magomed Kurbanov when the title was vacant. Now, he looks to bounce back against one of boxing’s most promising and popular rising talents.

Here’s what BetMGM odds say for Ortiz vs. Madrimov as of Friday morning.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Israil Madrimov Moneyline Odds

Moneyline: Ortiz -120, Madrimov +110

Ortiz vs. Madrimov Knockout/TKO/DQ Odds

Knockout Odds: Ortiz +350, Madrimov +350

Ortiz vs. Madrimov Decision Odds

Decision Odds: Ortiz +180, Madrimov +225

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Israil Madrimov: The Breakdown

Aside from Beterbiev-Bivol II, Ortiz Jr. vs. Madrimov is a surefire Fight of the Night candidate between two elite fighters.

Ortiz is a pure action fighter; few fighters can handle his volume and activity, and as exemplified by his KO numbers, he has a clear power advantage coming into the fight. Ortiz is also an electrifying body puncher, which could be a factor in slowing Madrimov down, but there could be some caveats.

Ortiz is an excellent fighter, but his motor seems to run really hot, and he never slows down. Most fighters can’t handle his style, but a fighter who can box and move like Madrimov could frustrate Ortiz.

The 30-year-old Madrimov is an underrated boxer with a great jab and awkward movement. He also has good pop behind his right hand, which he connects amid a plethora of feints. However, he’ll have to do more than just feint against Ortiz. His jab to the body sets up his signature leaping hooks and overhand rights. There have been a lot of questions surrounding Ortiz’s defense after the Bohachuk, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against Madrimov.

Let’s cut to the chase. The boxing business wants Ortiz to win this fight. If he wins, that opens the door for a Crawford fight and possibly bouts with IBF titlist Bakhram Murtazaliev and WBC titleholder Sebastian Fundora. There’s more money to be made with Ortiz in these matchups than with Madrimov. That’s just the honest truth.

If Madrimov wants to score the upset, he’ll have to truly dominate and outbox Ortiz and rely heavily on his defense, footwork, and awkwardness. If he can manage to do that, Madrimov could score the upset.

For Ortiz to win this fight, his ability to cut off the ring and land body punches will be crucial. If he can manage to slow Madrimov down, Ortiz could become the first man to stop him. But if I were a betting man, I’d take the smart money here.