NCAA March Madness: Midwest Region Betting Preview
Houston has felt like a shoo-in for the Final Four all season long, but now Marcus Sasser is dealing with an injury. Sure they can win without him, but the margin for error is smaller.
Texas is the No. 2 seed and they are in the odd position of having replaced a coach midseason. That rarely leads to high level success, but this team is talented enough to buck the trend.
The Midwest feels like the lightest bracket to me. Every team seems to have an injury or a question mark that gives you doubt on pulling the trigger. Does that mean chaos? We will have to wait a couple of days to find out.
Top Odds to Win the Midwest Region
Houston Cougars +130
Texas Longhorns +350
Indiana Hoosiers +1000
Texas A&M Aggies +1000
Best Bet: Houston Cougars +130
I hate going chalk because there might be more value in just rolling over ML plays with the Cougars. Even if Sasser is affected in some way, this team is more than good enough to advance to the Final Four. The path ahead of them is a lot of flawed teams and then likely Texas, against whom they will have a significant coaching advantage. Houston has one weakness in that they are not very big but few teams are able to exploit that.
Sleeper: Penn State Nittany Lions +3500
I am trying to avoid some recency bias here as I was watching PSU's comeback against Purdue in the Big Ten tourney title game. I liked the intensity they showed and since I have some doubt about Texas, I was looking for a team on that side of the bracket. Jalen Pickett had a wonderful season and with Seth Lundy, the Nittany Lions have a duo as good as most teams at the top. They are efficient on offense, even though they play small.
Best Bet for Thursday
Penn State +3 (vs Texas A&M)
Colgate is going to be popular, and I hope they give the Longhorns all they can handle, but I am going to let someone else make that bet. This line might have some recency bias, like the above sleeper play, but it is hard not to like the way PSU has played of late. They have been money in close games and that is what this is expected to be in the opening round. Texas A&M was second in the SEC this season but I have been unimpressed with them when I have seen them. This one will be tight throughout.
Best Bet for Friday
Miami -2 (vs Drake)
The Hurricanes ceiling takes a hit with the recent injury to Norchad Omier. Maybe he is all healed up in time, but even if he is not much of a factor I still like Miami over Drake. Nijel Pack has not had the season that was expected but the combo of him and Isaiah Wong is going to be a lot to handle for Drake. The Bulldogs had a nice season in the MVC, but that league was not especially strong this year. Their best win was against Mississippi State and they are going to have to win to cover in this spot against Miami. Tucker Devries is a nice player but they are going to have to tangle with more athletes than normal.
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