Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns odds & best bet

There was a reckoning in college hoops on Saturday with seven teams in the top ten losing. One of the teams that "survived" was Baylor, which knocked off a fellow top-ranked team when No. 5 Kansas came to Waco. Texas is another ranked opponent looking to improve their NCAA Tournament resume and will be a solid test for the new-look, and surging, Bears.

It was in a home win against the Longhorns that Baylor lost its top rebounder and a key member of its big man combo in Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Since then they have been playing a little differently, using their versatile freshman wings in different roles, and ultimately I think it makes them a better team. The Bears won and covered against Kansas even though they really didn't play that great. They shared the ball well and got to the free-throw line, plus those freshmen, Kendell Brown and Jeremy Sochan were their most efficient offensive players. Look for a lot more of that.

Texas finishes their season with Baylor and Kansas, two great opportunities to really raise their NCAA Tournament seed line. At home, its defense usually gets stingier and is going to need to after allowing Baylor to score 80 points the first time these teams met. Forward Tre Mitchell is still away from the team for personal reasons, but they have more than enough talent to get by without him. If anything it eases their rotation a little. The is a very enigmatic Texas team, though, hence the poor 12-16-1 ATS record this season. 

Game Info

Baylor Bears (24-5) vs. Texas Longhorns (21-8)
Monday, February 28, 2022
Erwin Center, Austin, Texas
9:00 PM ET
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spead: Bears -1.5 (-110), Longhorns +1.5 (-110)
Total: 135
Moneyline: Bears -125, Longhorns +105

Best Bet

Baylor -1.5

The big question for the Longhorns is are they inconsistent or overrated? No matter the answer, I like the Bears at this price and highly recommend looking at Bears futures too. 

When these teams met the first time all five Baylor starters scored at least 10 points. That is a trend I expect to continue as they are getting more and more comfortable with each other.

Also, Baylor is going with a super tight rotation right now (basically 6 players) and that is also an advantage against Texas. That means that they are not squandering possessions and while Texas is a very strong defensive team they are not known for cranking up the tempo with pressure. That is not Chris Beard's style. 

Baylor will also have the advantage of probably not having to work excessively hard on defense against the Longhorns. Texas in general plays with the ball too much on the perimeter and with mobile wings in Brown, Sochan, and Mathew Mayer (all 6'8" or taller), the Bears will make it difficult for a Texas team without much size- they often play with lineups where nobody is over 6'7".

Texas might have some success in the NCAA Tournament but Baylor is just a bad matchup for them. They proved it in a 13-point road loss and I am not seeing how they close the gap significantly in Austin tonight.