Baylor vs Mississippi State Prediction, Preview & Odds: NCAA Tournament First Round

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Mar 19, 2025 8:38 PM ET

Was Mississippi State really good, but got caught up in the brutal SEC, or is it just that inconsistent and average? Can Baylor salvage a rough finishing kick with a big first round win?

The Bears went 3-5 over the last eight games - but it got a win over Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. The Bulldogs were maddening dropping five of their last seven, beating LSU but losing to Missouri in the SEC Tournament.

The winner here makes its season with a shot to do something really special with - we’re all adults here, we can say the obvious - Duke up next.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Game Preview

Baylor vs Mississippi State How To Watch

Date: Friday, March 21
Venue: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Time: 12:15 pm ET
TV: CBS
Teams: (8) Mississippi State (21-12), (9) Baylor (19-14)
Region: East
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews

Why Mississippi State Will Win

Baylor doesn’t score.

This year in the SEC you had to be able to win games against teams like Alabama, Kentucky, and Missouri 89-85, or something like that. Mississippi State couldn’t do that.

Not only were the Bulldogs 0-10 when allowing more than 84 points, you have to go back almost a decade for the last time the program won a game when allowing that many or more.

Baylor managed more than 81 points just seven times this season. Once was in a double-overtime win over St. John’s, and there was only big scoring performance in Big 12 play in a win over UCF.

Why Baylor Will Win

Mississippi State was hit-or-miss when guarding the three, and then, all of a sudden, it got really bad at it.

The Bulldogs can move, and they’re active, but teams took target practice against them hitting 36% of their threes.

Baylor doesn’t live on the three, but it takes its share. It has a nice combination of outside shooting, offensive rebounds, and second chance points, and all with a strong defensive style that keeps games within range, but …

Baylor vs Mississippi State: Who Will Win?

Mississippi State is 19-1 when allowing fewer than 80 points - Baylor couldn’t get there 22 times.

While the Bulldogs might have the firepower to keep up in an offensive firefight, they’re far, far better when they can keep games at their own pace and crank up the defensive intensity.

They’re worse at closing than a guy in a bar wearing an I Grok Spock t-shirt, but star Josh Hubbard will take over when it matters.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Mississippi State 76, Baylor 72
Baylor vs Mississippi State Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: Miss State -1.5, o/u: 144.5
DraftKings Line: Miss State -1, o/u: 144.5
FanDuel Line: Miss State -1.5, o/u: 144.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5

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