Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Xavier Musketeers

 The Crosstown Shootout is upon us in the Queen City as Cincinnati and Xavier get ready to meet for the latest edition of one of the sport's best rivalries. UC is trying to win at Xavier for the first time since 2001 and start a win streak against its top rival after breaking through for Wes Miller's first Xavier win last season.

The Bearcats enter this game ranked 72nd on KenPom, while Xavier is 80th. Cincinnati is 6-2 entering the game, while Xavier is 6-3 amidst a three-game winning streak.

All the action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday on TNT as Cincinnati aims to grow its 52-40 all-time lead in the legendary matchup. Day Day Thomas is the only player on either side of the matchup with multiple years of playing in the rivalry.

"This one is special because it means so much to Cincinnati, and I've learned to really appreciate that, respect that, and just appreciate that I get to experience a rivalry like that," Miller said this week.

ESPN's Matchup Predictor has this about as tight as it gets, with Cincinnati winning 51.2% of the time. Let's dive into the top storylines as Cincinnati aims to win consecutive games in the series for the first time since 1996.

Three Ball Tells All In Paced Up Spot

Both of these teams have relied on the three-pointer to varying degrees this season. UC is taking a lot and not hitting enough (43rd nationally in attempts, 251st in three-point percentage), while Xavier is one of the best outside shooting outfits in the country (35th in percentage, 57th in attempts).

UC brings a strong outside defense to the table with all its length and strong man-to-man defensive structure, but it will be put to the test against a solid roster that has five players shooting at least 37.5% from outside and four of those taking at least 4.4 threes per game. Whoever can get into their offense faster and get into a shooting rhythm early will get the victory here.

Tre Carroll (15.9 PPG, 5.4 rebounds) is the top player to shut down as Cincinnati likely throws Sencire Harris on him at times. The FAU transfer has scored 17-plus points in four of the past five games.

Both teams are going to run and max their shot diets as much as possible. Cincinnati enters this game 53rd in adjusted tempo, while Xavier is 78th. Richard Pitino's team has been very disciplined in that strategy as well, turning the ball over 9.7 times per game (29th) and committing 17.1 fouls (128th). The Musketeers bring in the second-best defense UC's 218th-ranked offense by adjusted efficiency has faced this season, and they have to wake up on that end.

Xavier won't give them a ton of extra chances or chaos moments to run the floor and get transition points. UC hasn't done a good job scoring off turnovers anyway, so it'll just be even harder to tap into that version of easy offense. 

Xavier is going to stress UC's man-to-man defensive structure by bringing their bigs out on the perimeter and trying to take UC's top rebounders like Baba Miller and Moustapha Thiam away from those close board chances. Cincinnati has to be strong with its individual box outs to win a crucial rebounding battle. Extra possessions mean more three-point shots for the gunning Muskies. They have a negative rebounding differential and rank 191st in rebound rate, while the Bearcats are 95th.

UC has not been great on the boards all season, but they likely have to execute there to win this game. Xavier will just spray more threes on most of their second-chance shots. They don't like shooting inside the arc, and they aren't good at it either (44.9% from two, 351st nationally, 34.9 attempts per game). Forcing them off the three-point line and into late-clock long twos is the goal here for UC.

Continued great defense could lead to victory for UC, but they have to be a little better with their own long ball, box out better than they have been this season, and force Xavier into long twos instead of catch-and-shoot threes.

A path is there to get the first road win in this rivalry since 2001.