Cincinnati vs Dayton Odds, Picks, Predictions for Friday, December 20

• Dayton vs Cincinnati spread: Cincinnati -3
• Dayton vs Cincinnati over/under: 138.5 points
• Dayton vs Cincinnati moneyline: Cincinnati -170, Dayton +142
• Dayton vs Cincinnati best bet: Cincinnati -2.5 (Play to -4.5)

Spread

I like the Bearcats on the spread up to 4.5.

Moneyline

I have no play on the moneyline.

Over/Under

I have no play on the total.

My Pick: Cincinnati -2.5 (Play to -4.5)

Dayton vs Cincinnati College Basketball Betting Preview

Dayton Basketball

Dayton has proven it can beat anybody in college hoops, so facing a Big 12 opponent won’t rattle the Flyers. They own wins over Marquette and UConn and have two close losses to Iowa State and North Carolina in Maui.

That’s not a bad resume.

Although the Flyers don’t have a player with the cache or dominance of DaRon Holmes II or Obi Toppin, this iteration of the Flyers is very well-rounded. They have seven players averaging seven-plus points per game and four who crack double figures.

The two most important players are leading-scorer Enoch Cheeks — who has morphed into an elite shooter — and dynamic floor general Malachi Smith.

The story of Smith is a great one, as he’s coming off a pair of season-ending injuries to lead the Flyers in assists. He won’t have an easy task against the stout defense of Jizzle James, but Dayton turns the ball over just 13% of the time.

With Cincinnati likely to dominate on the interior, it’s paramount for the Flyers to shoot it well from 3. Anthony Grant’s squad shoots 3s on 41% of its field goal attempts, and that often dictates whether Dayton’s offense lives up to its ranking of 14 (per KenPom) or if they score 66 points, as it did against UNLV.

Defensively, the Flyers have struggled at times. They rank just 74th in defensive efficiency, while sitting 154th in 2-point field goal percentage and 153rd in 3-point field goal percentage.

Although Dayton held Marquette and UNLV to fewer than 66 points, neither team was held below 1.00 PPP. It’s pretty important for Dayton to keep Cincinnati in the same 1.00-1.09 PPP range.

Cincinnati Basketball

The fact that this game is happening away from UD Arena is an instant advantage for Cincinnati.

The Bearcats’ defense is one of the best in America, buoyed by an imposing interior unit. Cincinnati boasts the ninth-most efficient defense in America, per KenPom, and holds foes to 42% on 2s and 28% on 3s. The most recent defensive masterpiece by the Bearcats was holding Xavier to 0.93 PPP last Saturday in the Crosstown Shootout.

It took about eight games for Cincinnati to have its full complement of weapons, as Day Day Thomas and Dan Skillings Jr. missed time. But now both are back, adding another ball-handler (Thomas) and a secondary scoring threat (Skillings) to an already deep roster.

Offensively, the Bearcats can thrive on drive-and-kick opportunities when James and Thomas touch the paint, leading to good looks from 3. The key is hitting those shots, which Cincinnati has failed to do in its past two games versus top-75 teams (5-of-25 from 3 against Xavier and 8-of-26 versus Villanova).

Just looking at Cincy’s 37.9% 3-point percentage would indicate it’s a good shooting team. I’m just not fully convinced since Simas Lukosius is the only reliable shooter (48% from 3).

However, his 4-of-16 stretch against Xavier and Villanova coincides with Cincy’s slump. The Bearcats need Lukosius to set the offensive tone.

Moreover, Aziz Bandaogo and Dillon Mitchell pose arguably the best forward defensive duo in America. The two make scoring inside a chore, but the two are very one-dimensional offensive players.

Mitchell shoots 69% from the field, most of which are point-blank looks (48 of his 69 shots are layups or dunks).

Bandaogo is largely in the same boat, as 40 of his 50 shots are at the rim.

Neither stretch the floor, so it clogs the lane offensively since defenses don’t worry about them.

Dayton vs. Cincinnati Betting Analysis

I’m eyeing Cincinnati’s interior advantage as the swing here.

The tandem of Nate Santos and Zed Key is good, but those two are very small compared to Mitchell and Bandaogo.

Bandaogo is well-equip to contain Key’s interior and Mitchell can defend inside-and-out versus the versatile Santos.

I’m on the Bearcats here, and I would play them up to 4.5 points.